MLB: Who will be the biggest x-factors in the playoff chase?

SP James Shields, Kansas City Royals

If you haven’t been paying attention to the Royals this year (shame on you!), Shields’s inclusion might surprise you. The man Kansas City acquired to make the Royals relevant has delivered, but honestly, Shields is having a pedestrian year by his standards.

He’ll likely top 200 innings pitched for the eighth consecutive year (he has 192 IP entering Sept. 4), which is awesome in itself. He’s still really good, as the 2.8 fWAR and 3.38 show, but a lot of the peripheral numbers are just slightly worse than usual. His K/9 rate is slightly lower this year (7.03), and he’s allowed slightly more home runs (0.98 HR/9) than usual.

Those are the bad signs. The good signs are there, too. Shields is walking fewer batters this year (his 1.88 walk per nine innings ratio is nearly a full walk lower than last year’s 2.68 BB/9), his strikeout numbers aren’t completely out of line for what he’s capable of, and he’s honestly probably been a tad unlucky (.304 BABIP).

So, no, there’s nothing serious to worry about with Shields. But he’s pitched in some important games in his career (and somehow earned the odd moniker of “Big Game James”), and has the ability to be elite. He’s been excellent in 2014, but the Royals might need Shields to take his game to the next level to secure the AL Central.