MLB Free Agency: Max Scherzer vs. James Shields vs. Jon Lester

Major League Baseball free agency has become a danger zone for teams to spend money. The MLB players who become available are typically passed their prime and on the wrong end of their careers.

Teams have become smarter about locking up their own or if they know they can’t, trading them to recycle the process of getting players’ prime years.

This summer three pitchers will be available that are currently still pitching at an extremely high level, but because of their age could drop off without a moments notice.

Detroit Tigers’ starter Max Scherzer, Oakland Athletics’ ace Jon Lester and Kansas City Royals number-one James Shields will all hit the market.

Going into next season Scherzer will be 30 years old with over 1,200 innings on the resume. Lester will be over 1,600 innings at the age of 31 and Shields will sit over 1,900 innings and 33 years of age.

All three pitchers are going to be dangerous long-term investments, the key is figuring out which will be able to push off the effects of father time the longest.

Obviously if you can figure out a way to get one to accept a shorter deal with higher money per year that’s the smartest way to go. It would seem unlikely that happens.

MAX SCHERZER

Scherzer is on track for his second straight season of 200-plus innings. He is 16-5 with a 3.19 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. Scherzer’s xFIP (a stat good for projecting forward) comes in at 3.04. His HR/FB ratio is 8.1%, only .5% higher than last season and his K/9 is over 10 for a third consecutive season. Scherzer’s strikeout percentage has more than tripled his walk percentage all five seasons he’s been a starter with Detroit.

As Scherzer’s career has progressed he’s relied less and less on his fastball. Starting in 2008 with the Diamondbacks he threw his fastball 72.5% of the time and now he throws it only 54.3%. Here’s a look year by year:

2008: 72.5%

2009: 71%

2010: 65%

2011: 61.4%

2012: 60.8%

2013: 56%

2014: 54.3%

His velocity dipped to under 93 miles per hour this year for the first time in his career. In 2012 it averaged 94.2 then regressed to 93.3 last season and 92.8 this season. That’s not a trend you like to see, but the fact that his repertoire has evolved can help longevity.

Scherzer has always used a changeup and slider in addition to his fastball. He also occasionally mixes in a curveball, less this season then the previous two. A two-seam fastball has been used sparingly since 2012.

Hitters have missed pitches he’s thrown out of the strike zone at the highest rate during his time with the Tigers. In the strike zone the past three years have all ranged from 12.2% to 11.9% swings and misses.

Dean Oliver projects Scherzer’s ERA will stay under 4.00 with a K/9 over nine through 2018.

JAMES SHIELDS

Shields has thrown for over 200 innings for the eighth consecutive season. He has a 3.23 ERA with a 3.64 xFIP. Shields K/9 has reached the lowest rate since 2009 when he was with the Rays as its dropped to 7.01. It peaked at 8.82 in 2012 then fell to 7.71 and now what it is today. With the drop in strikeouts have also come a drop in walks. He’s walking less than two batters per nine innings for the first time since 2008.

Shields throws three different types of fastballs – a four-seam, two-seam and cutter. He’s thrown the cutter for 25% of his pitches this season according to PITCHf/x data, by far the highest percentage of his career. His off-speed stuff features a slider, curveball, changeup and knuckle curve he’s incorporated heavily for the first time in 2014.

His velocity has actually increased the past three seasons sitting at 92 MPH on his two and four-seam fastball. Hitters are making more contact with his pitches in and out of the strike zone this season. With that his BABIP hasn’t changed dramatically coming in at .298, the same exact number is was in 2013. It’s been under .300 the past four seasons.

Dean Oliver projects Shields ERA to stay under four through 2018 and to see a slight, but no dramatic drop through the years.

JON LESTER

Lester’s 2.54 ERA this season is the lowest of his career. It’s actually never been under three before 2014. His K/BB rate is 4.78 – for his career it sits at 2.66. Lester’s xFIP is 3.05.

Hitters are hitting more line drives and fly balls against Lester than they have in the past. With that his HR/FB ratio is 7.4%, the lowest it’s been since 2008.

Lester’s fastball velocity has dropped under 92 MPG for the first time since 2007. He’s started to rely on a cutter throwing it 31.6% of the time, while almost completely stopping throwing his changeup (2.7%). Lester is throwing his curveball right at his career average (15.1%).

The change in his pitching repertoire has led to more swings and misses from hitters. From 2011 to 2013 batters made contract with over 80% of all pitches Lester threw. In 2014 that’s down to 78.9%. If you isolate the number to pitches in the strike zone he’s getting the highest rate of swings and misses since 2010.

Dean Oliver sees Lester’s current season as being significantly more unsustainable than the previous two pitchers discussed. Oliver projects Lester’s ERA jumps to 3.93 next season and will be over 4.00 from 2015 to 2018.

All numbers used in this story are from fangraphs.com.