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The Armchair Quarterback’s guide to the NFL: Week 4

By Lyle Graversen

Dec 1, 2013; Landover, MD, USA; New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning (10) throws the ball as Washington Redskins outside linebacker Ryan Kerrigan (91) and Redskins nose tackle Barry Cofield (96) chase in the third quarter at FedEx Field. The Giants won 24-17. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 1, 2013; Landover, MD, USA; New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning (10) throws the ball as Washington Redskins outside linebacker Ryan Kerrigan (91) and Redskins nose tackle Barry Cofield (96) chase in the third quarter at FedEx Field. The Giants won 24-17. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports /
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Sep 21, 2014; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) reacts to a failed pass attempt during the fourth quarter against Oakland Raiders at Gillette Stadium. The New England Patriots won 16-9. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 21, 2014; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) reacts to a failed pass attempt during the fourth quarter against Oakland Raiders at Gillette Stadium. The New England Patriots won 16-9. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports /

New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs

The Monday Night Football match up is an interesting one in the AFC. The Patriots haven’t looked that good this year. They lost in Miami (where KC just won big), blew out a Matt Cassel led Vikings team, and then squeaked out a 16-9 win at home against the Raiders. Now they have to travel to Kansas City to face a Chiefs team that is trying to get to .500 after an 0-2 start. Arrowhead Stadium can be a hard place to play under normal circumstances, but with it being a prime time game and the Chiefs faithful trying to retake the Guinness world record for the loudest outdoor stadium, it could be tough sledding for Tom Brady and the gang.

While KC quarterback Alex Smith is the one accused of checking down too much, it’s interesting to note that Smith is averaging 3.07 “Air Yards” per attempt (Air yards are the passing yards made up by the ball being in the air as opposed to the receivers yards after catch). Tom Brady’s air yards per attempt is just 2.96. Also the Chiefs have double the 20+ yard passing plays that the Patriots have this season (10 to 5). So while Smith gets criticized and Brady gets a pass because of his past accomplishments, the numbers don’t back up the Pats passing attack being better than KC’s. Maybe I’m just being a KC homer, but I’ll take the Chiefs at home in front of an amped up crowd to beat Tom Brady and the Pats on Monday night.

Patriots 20
Chiefs 23

That does it for the week four edition of the Armchair Quarterback’s guide to the NFL. Are there any games you think I got all wrong? Anything else you think I should be taking into account on any of these games? I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments below. Enjoy this week’s games and thanks for reading.

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