NFL Week 4 Odds: 5 best bets against the spread

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) in the huddle during the second quarter against the Oakland Raiders at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports
New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) in the huddle during the second quarter against the Oakland Raiders at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports /
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San Francisco 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh (L) yells at NFL field judge Bob Waggoner (25) during the second half against the Arizona Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
San Francisco 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh (L) yells at NFL field judge Bob Waggoner (25) during the second half against the Arizona Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports /

San Francisco 49ers (-4.5) over Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are 3-0 and the 49ers are 1-2.

San Francisco is favored by 4.5 points.

The “public” perception would be that this line is inflated, but a deeper dive would tell you that a) there is a real chance that San Francisco is the better team, and b) Philadelphia should certainly not have an unblemished record right now. From a match-up perspective, the Eagles are currently 30th in the NFL in defending the pass, and while Colin Kaepernick isn’t a pure throwing machine, the Niners have the talent to capitalize on that obvious deficiency.

Moreover, the 49ers were embarrassed in their first home game of the season (a 28-20 loss to Chicago), and in a brand new building against an undefeated opponent, that fan base will be in a frenzy. The Eagles are going to score points behind their two-headed running game and Chip Kelly’s brain, but San Francisco won’t be stopped offensively and they should prevail by a touchdown or more at home.