NFL Playoff Odds: Who’s most likely to make the postseason?
By Keith Myers
AFC South
| Team | W | L | Pct. | Dif | GB | Odds | W. Odds |
| Houston Texans | 3 | 1 | .750 | 20 | — | 70.6% | 53.2% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 2 | 2 | .500 | 41 | 1 | 55.4% | 56.0% |
| Tennessee Titans | 1 | 3 | .250 | -50 | 2 | 3.9% | 20.9% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0 | 4 | .000 | -94 | 3 | 0.5% | 0.0% |
While the Houston Texans currently lead the division, it is the Indianapolis Colts that hold the best weighted-odds to make the playoffs, though not by a wide margin. The Colts have looked impressive in the early portions of this season, even though they have already lost two games.
The Jaguars are on the other end of the spectrum. They’ve looked awful this year, and currently are given absolutely no chance of rebounding and and making a push to become a playoff team by either NFL playoff odds model.
AFC West
| Team | W | L | Pct. | Dif | GB | Odds | W. Odds |
| San Diego Chargers | 3 | 1 | .750 | 39 | — | 76.2% | 64.6% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 2 | 2 | .500 | 23 | 1 | 41.3% | 16.2% |
| Denver Broncos | 2 | 1 | .667 | 8 | .5 | 44.3% | 79.8% |
| Oakland Raiders | 0 | 4 | .000 | -52 | 3 | 0.4% | 0.2% |
The two prediction models have very different opinions on the futures of both Kansas City and Denver. While the weighted odds have the Broncos as a near sure-thing to make the playoffs, the classic model currently has Denver’s chances of making the playoffs under 50 percent.
Conversely, the weighted odds don’t give the Kansas City Chiefs much of a chance to make the playoffs. This is a bit unexpected, given their blowout win over the Patriots on Monday.
One thing that the prediction models do agree on is that Chargers appear to be playoff bound. While the Weighted odds favor the Broncos more, they still point to a wild-card birth for San Diego.
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