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NBA Odds: 5 best win totals bets

By Taylor Armosino

Sep 29, 2014; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Eric Bledsoe (left), guard Isaiah Thomas (center) and guard Goran Dragic pose for a portrait during media day at the US Airways Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 29, 2014; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Eric Bledsoe (left), guard Isaiah Thomas (center) and guard Goran Dragic pose for a portrait during media day at the US Airways Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports /
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May 8, 2014; San Antonio, TX, USA; Portland Trail Blazers forward LaMarcus Aldridge (12) reacts against the San Antonio Spurs in game two of the second round of the 2014 NBA Playoffs at AT&T Center. The Spurs won 114-97. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports
May 8, 2014; San Antonio, TX, USA; Portland Trail Blazers forward LaMarcus Aldridge (12) reacts against the San Antonio Spurs in game two of the second round of the 2014 NBA Playoffs at AT&T Center. The Spurs won 114-97. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports /

3. Portland Trail Blazers

2013 record: 54-28

2014 projected wins: 48.5

Bet the under.

Last season, the Trail Blazers were a weird mirror image of the 2013 Knicks. Built around a volume scoring power forward, they hoisted a million threes, and got off to a red hot start before tailing off as the season went along. Unlike the 2014 Knicks, they don’t have Andrea Bargnani or Amar’e Stoudemire to muck things up. Portland isn’t going to collapse in 2014, but there are signs to suggest that they’re going to have some regression.

First and foremost, they won’t get off to another hot start like they did last season. They were out of their minds the first half of the season, going 31-10. They were just 23-17 the second half of the year, still good, but hardly spectacular. I believe they’re closer to the team we saw in the second half than the first. I’m not sold on LaMarcus Aldridge as this unstoppable superstar. He’s a volume scorer that jacks up a ton of mid-range shots. I get that him doing so opens up other facets of the offense, but he’d be better suited adding a three point shot like Paul Millsap did last season.

Portland also had near perfect injury health a season ago. That doesn’t mean everyone will get hurt this year, but it’s also rare for a team to go two consecutive seasons with no major injuries. We also don’t know if they’re going to be any better defensively, which will be more of a problem if the offense regresses like it did in the second half of last season.

The Trail-Blazers won’t be bad, but I don’t think they were as good as their record would indicate last season. I think the offense regresses and the defense never improves. The West is even deeper this year with Phoenix, Dallas, New Orleans, and Denver all getting better and that’s going to hurt Portland’s chances of winning 49 or more games.

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