Predicting the final records of each NBA team

Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers had a remarkable renaissance behind LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard last season, but they have become the Western Conference playoff team most clearly associated with regression, and that is tough to argue. Four of Portland’s five starters appeared in all 82 regular season games last season, and while there is obviously nothing wrong with that, it is hard to envision a scenario in which the injury gods are quite that kind to the Blazers.

Star forward LaMarcus Aldridge was the lone player afflicted by an injury, as he appeared in only 69 games, but Aldridge had a career year in averaging 23.2 points and 11.1 rebounds, and that is, by all accounts, his absolute apex. I would stop short in projecting a decline from Aldridge, but at the same time, he isn’t going to be “better” this season, and factoring in some injury bumps along the way could prove costly.

At the same time, Portland’s depth has vastly improved over the recent past, and that gives some positive thinking toward this season. The bench has real players including Steve Blake, C.J. McCollum, Will Barton, D0rell Wright, Thomas Robinson and the newly-signed Chris Kaman, and even if they aren’t all perfect fits, the drop-off shouldn’t be as stiff as you might think if the Blazers have issues in the starting lineup.

The Blazers are absolutely loaded in the aforementioned starting five, as Lillard and his 20.7 points per game is accompanied by a dynamic wing duo of Wesley Matthews and Nic Batum. Matthews converted 39.3% of his 6.2 three-point attempts per game last season, and Portland is basically the Northwest equivalent of the “splash brothers” as popularized by the Golden State Warriors.

In my opinion, the biggest spot to watch (outside of injuries) on the roster comes in the form of C.J. McCollum, Steve Blake and Chris Kaman. Even in the event of perfect health, Kaman will be called on to spot starting center Robin Lopez, and with Mo Williams gone, McCollum adopts the role as the shot-maker off the bench with Blake picking up the duties of the backup point guard position. It is entirely possible that Blake represents on upgrade on what Portland got out of Williams last season, but the upside of McCollum is much higher as a former lottery pick, and it would be nice to see him come on in his second full season.

Portland is still a very good team, but in the West, any regression whatsoever can bite you, and the Blazers should take a step back in the win column this season.

Projected Record: 48-34, 7th in West