College Football: Why Alabama will beat Mississippi State Saturday
The Alabama Crimson Tide will defeat Mississippi State this Saturday — here’s why.
With the all-important college football playoff implications each game has, Saturday’s contest between fifth-ranked Alabama and top-ranked Mississippi State is the biggest game to date this season.
Perennial power Alabama is expected to play well in big games, but in their biggest game of the season at Ole Miss, they struggled to beat the Rebels. However, if you take a closer look at that game, the Tide were just one play away from tying the game and sending it into overtime. Many people thought Alabama had been dethroned, but now they are hosting the number one team in the nation in a top-five matchup.
It’s no secret that this is not Nick Saban’s best Alabama team, but they are still very good. Senior Quarterback Blake Sims has not thrown an interception since the pass that ended their comeback efforts against Ole Miss. Sims is completing 61.6 percent of his passes this year and could see great success in the passing game against Mississippi State. The Bulldogs pass defense is one of the worst in the country, ranking 120 out of 125 teams and allowing 300.7 passing yards per game. Sims has the best receiver in the country with Omari Cooper. This week sets up nicely for Sims to have his “Heisman Moment” if Alabama wins.
Alabama’s defense has always been the reason for Saban’s success. Junior Quarterback Dak Prescott came into the national spotlight with a big game against Texas A&M this season. A dual-threat, Prescott has thrown for 200 yards or more in each of his nine games this season and has rushed for 50 yards or more in eight of his nine games. Prescott is averaging 334.4 total yards per game this season and is the key to the Bulldogs’ success. Alabama’s defense will have their hands full with Prescott and offensive weapons such as running back Josh Robinson and wide receiver De’Runnya Wilson.
Alabama’s defense will face it’s toughest test of the season. Mississippi State’s offense hasn’t been stopped, despite only putting up 17 points against Arkansas, the Bulldogs had 459 yards of total offense against the Razorbacks. However, the Crimson Tide’s defense has been a force ranking fourth in the nation in total defense this season allowing 275.2 total yards per game. Backed by their home fans, the Alabama defense will have extra help on their side.
The matchup to watch for is how Alabama gameplans to stop Dak Prescott and the Bulldogs’ electric offense. The Crimson Tide will dictate the tempo of the game based on how well their defense plays. Tempo is a major part of college football today and the team that controls the tempo in their favor often wins the game.
Turnovers are going to be critical in this showdown because of how sparse they will be. The team that can capitalize on forcing turnovers will be likely to come on top. Leading up to this matchup, Mississippi State has a turnover margin of zero. Alabama’s turnover margin is negative two.
Alabama’s defense will be able to get the extra stop they need to fight off a powerful offense. It’s up to Blake Sims to protect the ball and manage the game. Sims will have the help of a power rushing attack with running backs T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry.
Dak Prescott and the Bulldogs will put up a fight and keep it close, but their defense won’t be able to get the extra stop they need to fight off the Crimson Tide. Ultimately, it will be Alabama to come on top because of Mississippi State’s awful pass defense. Blake Sims will create his “Heisman Moment” with a late fourth-quarter drive to beat Mississippi State.
Prediction: Alabama 23, Mississippi State 17
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