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NBA: Separating Championship Contenders From Pretenders

By Clint Pemberton

Sep 26, 2014; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward Kevin Love (0), forward LeBron James (23) and guard Kyrie Irving (2) pose for a photo during media day at Cleveland Clinic Courts. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 26, 2014; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward Kevin Love (0), forward LeBron James (23) and guard Kyrie Irving (2) pose for a photo during media day at Cleveland Clinic Courts. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports /
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Nov 12, 2014; Denver, CO, USA; Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) reacts during the first half against the Denver Nuggets at Pepsi Center. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 12, 2014; Denver, CO, USA; Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) reacts during the first half against the Denver Nuggets at Pepsi Center. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports /

Portland Trail Blazers 12-3
ORating 111.4 (3rd), DRating 101.8 (5th), Point Differential +9.0 (4th), SOS 14th, Title odds +2600

The Portland Trail are one of the outsiders on this list according to Vegas, listed as 25-1 shots. Using simple reductive reasoning that price is too high, as they are one of only four teams to be top-ten in both offensive and defensive efficiency, ranking third and sixth respectively, while maintaining the fourth best point differential. This is undoubtedly a recipe for championship success, the question for the Blazers is can they maintain it?

The Blazers have played nine of 15 at home, winning eight, they have also played five games against other teams on this list going 3-2. Despite their home-heavy fixture the Blazers strength of schedule (SOS) still ranks 14th overall, and fourth hardest amongst this group. In the seven games contested against teams with better than .500 record the Blazers have gone 4-3, to go with an unblemished record of 8-0 versus teams under .500.

The Blazers were undoubtedly a good team last year, winning a playoff series before being schooled by the San Antonio Spurs. That iteration of the Blazers was flawed, a below average defensive unit; this year having tweaked their defensive schemes, reducing their points allowed per 100 possessions from 107.4 (17th) to 101.7 sees their ranking climb to sixth in the NBA. On the offensive end the Blazers excellence continues, ranking second with 111.5 points / 100 possessions.

Questions remain outside of the starting five, however until we see statistical evidence that proves otherwise the Portland Trail Blazers remain firmly in the championship picture.

Status – Contender

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