NBA: Separating Championship Contenders From Pretenders
Dallas Mavericks 11-5
ORating 116.4 (1st), DRating 106.2 (14th), Point Differential +9.5 (3rd), SOS 23rd, Title odds +2100
The Dallas Mavericks offense is cruising along at an historically great level, scoring an almost unbelievable 116.4 points per 100 possessions; and this is with free agent acquisition Chandler Parsons struggling to get on-track. Being historically good on offense can paper over a lot of cracks, but having a great offense and a defense ranked outside the top-ten does not fit the tested championship profile. The best offense of the last decade was the 12-13 Miami Heat who ranked second, but they were backed by the ninth best defense and still needed Ray Allen’s game six heroics to pull off a title.
The Mavs have championship hero Tyson Chandler back in the fold and anchoring their defense, which has improved from allowing 108.7 points per 100 possessions (22nd) to 106.7 which ranks 14th. They have played a relatively easy schedule (23rd) which includes three other teams on this list, going 1-3 in those games. The Mavs however might be flat track bullies, beating up on the weaker kids (8-1 vs Sub .500 teams) and struggling against the better teams with a losing record (3-4) against teams above .500.
The Mavs have been very good offensively and should continue to be, however unless they can find another gear defensively they will have a glass ceiling.
Status – Pretender
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