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NBA: Separating Championship Contenders From Pretenders

By Clint Pemberton

Sep 26, 2014; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward Kevin Love (0), forward LeBron James (23) and guard Kyrie Irving (2) pose for a photo during media day at Cleveland Clinic Courts. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 26, 2014; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward Kevin Love (0), forward LeBron James (23) and guard Kyrie Irving (2) pose for a photo during media day at Cleveland Clinic Courts. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports /
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Nov 3, 2014; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Houston Rockets guard James Harden (left) and center Dwight Howard (12) joke around on the bench as time winds down in a game against the Philadelphia 76ers at the Wells Fargo Center. The Rockets defeated the 76ers 104-93. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 3, 2014; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Houston Rockets guard James Harden (left) and center Dwight Howard (12) joke around on the bench as time winds down in a game against the Philadelphia 76ers at the Wells Fargo Center. The Rockets defeated the 76ers 104-93. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports /

Houston Rockets 12-3

ORating 104.0 (22nd), DRating 98.0 (2nd), Point Differential +5.5 (7th), SOS 28th, Title odds +1300

Plenty of Internet ink has been spilled deriding the aesthetics of the Houston Rockets play, however we are not here to judge beauty, but to judge effectiveness, sustainability and championship viability.

The Rockets have been extremely efficient defensively, ranking second overall; this is an elite defense with Patrick Beverly, Trevor Ariza and a healthy Dwight Howard, even allowing for the James Harden turnstile effect. Howard’s health has been, and continues to be an issue, particularly with their reduced depth after losing Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik. Howard has played 10 of 15 games and the Rockets are 9-1 in those games, the Houston big man posting a +96 in the 334 minutes he has been on the court and -34 when he is off. Regardless of how good James Harden is, Dwight Howard is the key to this teams success, the Rockets score 8.6 points more per 100 possessions and allow 11.5 less when he is on the court, a massive net +20.1 points per 100 possessions.

So whilst the Rockets defensively fit the profile of a contender with their second ranked defense, their offensive rating of 22 seemingly holds them back, however if we account for the time Howard is on the court they would have the eighth best offense in the NBA. The Rockets might not be pretty to watch with over 75% of their offense being three -point attempts or shots within three feet of the rim, but at their best they are undeniably effective.

Whilst adjusted metrics place the Rockets right in the middle of contention, I will withhold my stamp of approval until we look at this list at the end of next month. Howard is out indefinitely and the Rockets have played a powderpuff schedule, which to be fair, a few teams on this list have, however they will stay outside of the contention bracket until they turn their potential into results.

Status – Pretender – But watch closely

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