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NFL Draft: Which 2-12 Team Needs the No. 1 Pick Most?

By Will Osgood

Dec 13, 2014; New York, NY, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Marcus Mariota kisses the Heisman Trophy during a press conference at the New York Marriott Marquis after winning the Heisman Trophy. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 13, 2014; New York, NY, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Marcus Mariota kisses the Heisman Trophy during a press conference at the New York Marriott Marquis after winning the Heisman Trophy. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports /
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Sep 30, 2014; Alameda, CA, USA; General view of Oakland Raiders helmet and Lombardi trophies from Super Bowl XI, XV and XVIII during a press conference at the Raiders practice facility. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 30, 2014; Alameda, CA, USA; General view of Oakland Raiders helmet and Lombardi trophies from Super Bowl XI, XV and XVIII during a press conference at the Raiders practice facility. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports /

Oakland Raiders (Odds for No. 1 Pick: 10.4%)

Strengths: Derek Carr is the rare rookie quarterback who has thrown far fewer interceptions than he has touchdowns. In fact, his 18:11 TD:Int ratio is better than Andrew Luck or Peyton Manning’s as rookies.

Meanwhile, Khalil Mack and Sio Moore look like a future star-studded combination at the outside linebacker spot. And Latavious Murray looks like the kind of speed back who could be dynamic in a Darren Sproles/Danny Woodhead-type role.

Next: Why Jim Harbaugh is Coming to the Raiders

Weaknesses:  Like the other teams previously mentioned, the Raiders are equally bad on offense and defense. In that sense they are all about equal opportunity. And like the previous two teams mentioned they have started a rookie quarterback. Unlike the other teams, Derek Carr has started since Week 1.

Oakland is 31st in scoring offense and 30th in points allowed. They have two former stud running backs, who have gotten old, and no prominent playmaker at the wide receiver position.

Defensively they are a hodgepodge of old has beens (Justin Tuck most notably) and career backup types (Miles Burris) with only Khalil Mack and Sio Moore presenting any real hope for the future.

Case For Needing the No. 1 Pick: Like every team on this list, the Raiders are hot garbage. Simply an infusion of talent is necessary. But for the Raiders, the No. 1 pick would probably be most valuable as a trade piece.

The Raiders may not know for sure if Carr will become a true franchise QB. But he’s done enough this season to deserve a real shot to prove that he is one.

And because they face a dearth of talent, trading down to say the Jets, since we’ve already said they are most ready to win with Mariota, would give them more picks and more opportunities to refuel the talent base around Carr.

Conclusion: Currently the Bucs are in QB purgatory. They are a Marcus Mariota, or perhaps Jameis Winston, away from being at least a .500 team. But they really could ride a Matt Cassel or Alex Smith type to become that kind of team.

Jacksonville has a lot of needs, but quarterback is not one of them at the moment. The same could be said of Oakland. For those teams, earning the No. 1 pick would be great incentive for a trade out of the slot and into more picks.

It seems the Tennessee Titans are most desperate for the No. 1 overall pick. They’re not even in QB purgatory right now. And their best option at the QB spot would only get them there and no further.

In blowing the game on Sunday against the Jets, the Titans actually lucked out. Now they just need to let another team in the duel for the No. 1 spot beat them on Thursday night. And then they’ll almost certainly become the rightful owners of the rights to pick Mariota.

All statistical data taken from Pro-Football-Reference.com, unless noted.

Next: Who Were The Biggest NFL Draft Busts Of All-Time?

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