Predictions for NFL Wild Card Weekend
No. 5 Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) at No. 4 Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
Sunday January 4, 2015 1.00 pm on CBS
This one is pretty difficult to pick. The Colts have the quarterback edge with Andrew Luck over Andy Dalton. The Colts throw the football better (first in passing at 305.9 yards per game). The Bengals run the football better (sixth in rushing at 134.2 yards per game). Overall the Bengals defense is a little bit better ranking 12th in opponents points per game to the Colts who are ranked 19th in that category and I strongly favor the Bengals personnel on defense (Reggie Nelson, Dre Kirkpatrick, Carlos Dunlap, Adam Jones, Rey Maualuga, and Geno Atkins) over the Colts defensive personnel.
The obvious question is, “Who do you trust more in a playoff game: Andy Dalton or Andrew Luck?” The answer to that question is as easy to answer as if someone asked you, “Who are you taking to win the college basketball national title in 2015: Kentucky or the field?” Of course your taking Kentucky and of course your taking Andrew Luck. It’s a no brainer.
Another way to look at it is, “Which quarterback has the better supporting cast?” It’s close but I feel inclined to take Dalton’s cast. He’s got the more physical and talented defense, a reliable running game, and he’s got the best receiver on the field to throw to in A.J. Green — over T.Y. Hilton.
The thing that bugs me about both of these teams is that they both have struggled to beat big-time teams. We all know about Dalton’s reputation of showing up small in playoff games (0-3 record) and the Bengals falling flat on their faces in big games in general. The Colts on the other hand, greatly benefit from playing in the absolutely weakest and most lifeless division in football (AFC South) and have looked completely lost against quality teams in 2014. Against Super Bowl contenders Dallas, Pittsburgh, New England, and Denver, Indianapolis was outscored 166-85 and was manhandled in all four games. Also, the Colts turn the ball over too much and Luck (16 interceptions and 13 fumbles) is responsible for the majority of them. So, I don’t trust either one of these teams, but somebody’s gotta win this one.
Luck (led league with 40 TD passes) is obviously the best player on the field and having that guy on your team should alone make the Colts the slight favorite, although he can’t single-handily carry the Colts to a championship. Yet, I’m a big believer in “Sooner or later this team is going to get over the hump and get the job done after always being in the playoffs and suffering loss after loss” that applies to the Bengals losing three straight years in the Wild Card game. The Bengals are due to win at least one playoff game this year being that this is their fourth year in a row in the playoffs. No, I don’t think the Bengals are going all the way but I think they will find a way to win this game – no matter how sloppy and ugly it might be.
My Pick: Bengals 27-23
Next: Lions at Cowboys