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Fantasy Football: DeMarco Murray’s Value

By Dave Fuqua

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So, what are we going to do with DeMarco Murray in fantasy football leagues for next year? If you have played fantasy football for any number of years, you may be familiar with a little thing called the “Curse of the 370”. Basically this was a theory created by Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders that simply says any running back who carries the ball 370+ times in a season is doomed or cursed for a bad season the next. He states lots of research which is very substantial and damning for a guy like Murray who finished the regular season with 392 carries and an additional 52 catches. We won’t spend a lot of time here rehashing Shatz’s evidence, but say that it will definitely play into what we suggest for Murray in leagues for next year.

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Can Murray shatter this so-called curse and still deliver a great season next year? He still has at least one more playoff game left that is going to most likely give him an additional 20+ touches. One positive thing that Murray has going for him is he is still relatively young for a RB. He is only 26, and will be heading into his 5th season next year. Murray did demonstrate some nice toughness by playing through a broken hand in the final regular season game of the 2014 season. Murray is in a great offense that will lean heavily on him next year. Murray has always been a solid back as the Cowboys feature back, and been a monster anytime he was given touches.

The truth is that none of us have a crystal ball and none of us can really know just how DeMarco Murray will fare next season. However, that does not stop us from our responsibility of doing our homework and trying to figure out what the odds say he will do next year. The odds are certainly stacked against him, and this is a situation that you need to try to use to your advantage for whatever you believe that he will do. My gut reaction is that Murray will be fine when he plays, but he may suffer an injury that causes him to miss 2 or 3 games or more next season. This is certainly something that you can use to your advantage for whether you want to keep him or sell him next year.

If none of your league is aware or realizes that the curse may be upon him next year, you could move him at a very high rate. However, if someone else owns him and gets worried, then you could possibly buy him at a discounted price. I say you should go with your gut, but he could very well be someone you should steer clear of in re-draft leagues. As far as long-term in dynasty leagues you are going to want to handcuff him to the best of your ability, which is something you should do with your RB1 in any league.

Marshawn Lynch bucked the curse this year, and still had a solid season. Will Murray do the same?

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