NFL Wild Card Odds: Best bets against the spread
By Brad Rowland
Dallas Cowboys (-6.5) over Detroit Lions
Much like the early game, this is a spot where the line move has changed my thinking. Dallas opened as an 8-point favorite in most spots, and I would have been on the Lions with more than a touchdown of breathing room. However, coming across a key number like seven is enough to move me to the Dallas side, even with some sharps in opposition.
As Grantland’s Bill Simmons pointed out this week, Matthew Stafford is 0-16 on the road in his career against teams with winning records. Obviously, that is a jarring statistic, and even against a Dallas defense that has some holes, the Lions haven’t done enough offensively this season to assuage my fears about their inability to produce consistently.
Moreover, I trust the Dallas offense implicitly. Tony Romo is in the midst of the best season of his career, Demarco Murray has been the league’s best running back, and even with Ndamukong Suh active, the Cowboys have enough talent and burst along the offensive line to overcome what is a very good Detroit defense.
I don’t like laying nearly a touchdown here, but provided you can get it below 7 points (as I have), Dallas is the play.