Masahiro Tanaka is Risky in Mock Draft Round 9

Sep 21, 2014; Bronx, NY, USA; New York Yankees starting pitcher Masahiro Tanaka (19) tips his cap as he leaves the game in the sixth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports

Round 8 of the early fantasy baseball mock draft can be found here.  There is a still a lot of talent left, but there were a few less proven options taken in round 9.  Three Chicago Cubs found themselves selected in this round of the mock draft.

Jorge Soler, J.D. Martinez, Mark Trumbo, and Wil Myers were all great picks that could produce way above their respective spots, while Masahiro Tanaka is a ticking time bomb with his elbow.

The numbers listed to the left of each name represent the round and the overall pick they were drafted.

9.97 SP Masahiro Tanaka of the New York Yankees

There is no doubt that Tanaka is one of the best pitchers in baseball based on his rookie year in MLB.  However, I am highly skeptical of the long-term health of his elbow that he rehabbed in the second half of 2014 rather than opting for Tommy John surgery.  Masahiro Tanaka is only half his cost at this point, but I have a bad feeling about his elbow, so I will avoid him.

9.98 C Devin Mesoraco of the Cincinnati Reds

The Reds might have had a terrible offense in 2014, but it was not Devin Mesoraco’s fault who had a career year with 25 homers.  However, Mesoraco is a strong candidate for regression in the power department as his 20.5% HR/FB% is nearly 10% higher than the second best HR/FB% of his career.  I think 15-20 HR is a far more realistic expectation.

9.99 2B/SS Javier Baez of the Chicago Cubs

Javier Baez is almost assuredly a hit to your team’s batting average, but the 30 home run potential from a middle infielder is hard to pass up on.  Baez has a lower floor than most of the players drafted in round 9, but he has the possibility to be a counting stat stud with middle infield eligibility.

9.100 SP James Shields is a free agent

Big Game James has been one of the most reliable pitchers over the past four years.  He has thrown 200+ innings in every season of his career, excluding his rookie call-up during the 2006 season.  On the other hand, I think James Shields is a candidate for a slight regression.  His ERA has beaten his FIP, xFIP, and SIERA for two years straight.  While Shields had a 3.21 ERA in 2014, I think we could see that rise to a 3.50 ERA for the 33-year-old starter.

9.101 OF Ben Revere of the Philadelphia Phillies

I have constantly preached about not paying big money for steals and saving on Ben Revere instead.  Revere went a decent bit higher than I expected, but then again, he is a solid three category contributor in standard formats even if he offers no production in HR or RBI.  I would have waited a little longer even though my appreciation of Ben Revere is well documented.

9.102 OF Jorge Soler of the Chicago Cubs

I am really surprised that Baez went above Soler.  In fact, Jorge Soler could have the biggest impact out of the recent Cub prospects in 2015 because Kris Bryant is starting the year in AAA.  His 24 game cup of coffee in 2014 was incredible as Soler slashed .292/.330/.573, scored 11 runs, hit 5 homers, and drove in 20 RBI’s.  Jorge Soler has the type of potential where he could be a third round draft pick in 2016.

9.103 OF J.D. Martinez of the Detroit Tigers

In just 123 games, J.D. Martinez was one of the true breakout players of this past season.  He slashed a very impressive .315/.358/.553 and hit 23 homers.  His power potential could stay as his average fly ball traveled 299.01 feet, which was good enough for 18^th best in MLB out of 298 qualified hitters.

On the other hand, there will almost certainly be a regression in his batting average because Martinez benefited from a .389 BABIP although his line drive rate was only a little above his career average.  Martinez has a career .272 BA and .333 BABIP, so I would expect his 2015 batting average to return closer to .280 rather than .315, but that is still above average.  This was a great pick at #103.

9.104 1B/OF Mark Trumbo of the Arizona Diamondbacks

As much as I like the J.D. Martinez pick, I think I slightly prefer the Trumbo selection one pick later in the mock draft.  While Mark Trumbo has a lot of holes in his game, he can hit the ball very far on a frequent basis.  A healthy Trumbo should provide your team with 30 homers and 100 RBI’s is not out of the question.  I am definitely a sucker for power, and I believe Trumbo is a great fantasy option, especially in OPS leagues as explained more in this post.

9.105 1B/OF Brandon Moss of the Cleveland Indians

Brandon Moss was drafted here when he was Oakland, so the move to the Cleveland should benefit him even more as you can read here.  Before a bad hip injury derailed his production and eventually caused Brandon Moss to get off-season surgery, I just want to remind you that Moss hit 21 homers before the All-Star Break.

9.107 SS Starlin Castro of the Chicago Cubs

The third Cub drafted in the ninth round profiles as a .300 hitter and has 15 HR power at SS.  He will probably have a higher ADP in most leagues, and I feel Starlin is a top 100 player and more suited for the seventh or eighth round.  At only 24 years old, I think Castro continues to develop in 2015.

9.108 2B Neil Walker of the Pittsburgh Pirates

At a position starved for power, Neil Walker has equaled or improved his home run total every season of his career, which dates back to 2009.  With a career LD% of 22.5%, I think Walker is a proven bat at this point and he is still undervalued as you can read in this article.  You can probably grab him outside of the top 100 picks.