NFL Divisional Playoff Odds: Best bets against the spread
By Brad Rowland
Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts UNDER 54 points
Defense and weather conditions will take us home.
In fairness, only one of these teams has what I would consider to be a good defense, but Denver is lights-out on that side of the field, whether you know it or not. The Broncos finished the season with the third-ranked defense in the NFL according to DVOA, and led by Von Miller and a quality secondary, Denver ranks in the top ten against both the pass (9th) and the run (2nd). Andrew Luck is nothing to mess with, but in outdoor conditions, it is a stretch to think that a virtually one-dimensional offense will carve up Denver’s defense.
The weather could also be a significant factor here, and that affects Denver’s offense. Yes, Peyton Manning and his crew were very good again this season (3rd in offensive DVOA), but Manning himself struggled mightily over the past month of the season, and he has never fared well in cold weather. The game-time temperature is supposed to hover around 40 degrees, which isn’t terribly treacherous, but with the Broncos shifting toward a more run-based attack, the point total should be lower.
Oh, and there is that small matter of the public. Again, the public is almost always on the over, and that is the case here at a more than 60% clip. Fade the public, take the under and grind yourself into the ground as you sweat Manning and Luck.
Next: Colts over Broncos