Super Bowl 49 from A to Z
By Will Osgood
H
Halftime Show
Pepsi is the official sponsor of the Super Bowl halftime show. As AdAge.com details here, there will be more than just the initially reported musical acts (which we’ll touch on momentarily) engaging the in-stadium and, especially, television audience during Sunday’s drawn out intermission.
Craig Robinson (The Office, Hot Tub Time Machine) will play, in an ad put on by Pepsi, in which he is searching for the halftime show. Of course, commercials have long been a draw to the non-fo0tball watching crowd for the Super Bowl, but this is a rather new invention. We’ll see how it works.
Of course what Robinson will, presumably, find is pop star Katy Perry performing on-stage and at some point a performance from a star of yesteryear Lenny Kravitz. It is nothing new for the Super Bowl to use a star from a decade prior. But Kravitz was announced as a performer well after Perry. She is the star of the show.
It will be interesting to see how Perry, known for exotic hair styles (which it seems all pop stars in modern lore are) and I know not what else. She did make a guest appearance on CBS’ hit show How I Met Your Mother in 2011 and earlier this football season was the guest picker at Ole Miss when ESPN’s College Gameday was there in October.
She will also share the cover of ESPN the Magazine with Houston Texans defensive end J.J. Watt in the upcoming issue. With the HIMYM & Gameday appearances, she has shrewdly crafted a path (you may say an image) whereby she has become known to the average football-watching male, who I assume would not listen to her music otherwise. And in the process likely stolen many hearts.
Access Hollywood provided some clues as to what she will wear during the show.
Next: From the cute factor to the hard facts
I
Inside the Numbers
When Brady and the Patriots have the ball
As noted elsewhere, the Seattle Seahawks held the best defense in the league, according to Football Outsiders, on the legs of the league’s second best DVOA rush defense, while ranking third in the passing metric. Those numbers fit in nicely, as Seattle led the league in scoring defense, allowing 15.9 points per game (which includes any special teams or defensive touchdowns the other team had, whereas DVOA does not include those).
The DVOA numbers appear to be right on the mark, as the Seahawks were second in rush yards per carry allowed, at just 3.4 per, and were third in yards per passing attempt at 5.5 per.
To counteract that, New England was surprisingly just ninth in the league in total passing yards with just 4,121 yards. They were worse in yards per attempt, 17th with 6.5 per. That said, New England ranked fifth in passing DVOA, so perhaps the more common metrics aren’t as true to the worth of the Patriots’ passing attack.
Using the more common metrics again, New England ranked 18th in total rushing yards with 1,727 yards and a not pretty 22nd in yards per attempt with a 3.9 average. In DVOA terms the New England rushing offense finished 14th.
All in all, it seems like New England is a long shot to have much success running on Seattle. Remember in the divisional round against Baltimore they scrapped the run game in the second half altogether. Look for that again on Sunday.
When Wilson and the Seahawks have the ball
The Seahawks were 27th in net passing yards with just 3,250 on the year, but a bit better in yards per attempt, 14th with 6.6 per attempt. They also were third best in not turning the ball over, as Russell Wilson only threw seven interceptions during the regular season (I spend more time on Wilson’s tough game against Green Bay in a link provided later in this piece).
The net yards per attempt stat helps reason that Seattle ranked 10th in passing DVOA.
When running, the ‘Hawks were the best in the league, gaining 2,762 yards on 5.3 yards per attempt, which includes quarterback runs by Wilson. They were also first in rushing touchdowns. Not surprisingly, Seattle ranked first in rushing DVOA. In other words, Seattle’s rushing offense is legitimate, and will be a tough spot for New England.
The Patriots’ defense, though, was ninth in rushing yards allowed, 1,669, and 4.0 yards per carry allowed. But their DVOA says they were the 14th best team against the rush (DVOA considers opponent and is weighted so that the most recent results impact the ranking more than games earlier in the year).
The passing defense ranked 17th, giving up 3,837 yards and was literally middle of the pack in yards allowed per attempt at 6.2. Meanwhile their pass defense DVOA says they were 12th best.
If the numbers hold true, Seattle will fair well on the ground, and should be able to gain some yards through the air. If it were the only way to predict this game, Seattle would be the favorite.
Next: New England has up-and-coming/important young defender to watch out for