Starting Pitching Depth Shrinks After Mock Draft Round 3
By Bill Pivetz
Mar 3, 2015; Mesa, AZ, USA; San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Madison Bumgarner (40) throws in the first inning against the Oakland Athletics at HoHoKam Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports
Round 3 of my mock draft was all about starting pitchers. Of the 10 picks, four of them were starting pitchers. After teams picked up hitters in the first two rounds, a No. 1 pitcher was next on the list. Following my strategy, I decided to go after another bat and wait another round or two for my first pitcher. It may cost me, but pitching is really deep this year and I’m willing to wait.
Some of the names drafted surprised me, but based on their respective position depth, it made sense. Grab a top third baseman or shortstop now instead of a bottom feeder in the 14th round. Either way, you miss out on a top player elsewhere.
3.21 SP Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants
In the 2014 World Series, Bumgarner was the MVP without question. He had a really good regular season as well. He had an 18-10 record, 2.98 ERA, 1.090 WHIP and 219 strikeouts. All of those stats would help any fantasy owners in the pitching categories. The only downside to Bumgarner is that he doesn’t eat up innings or strikeout 250+ batters like other pitchers, but will be a great option regardless.
3.22 3B Josh Donaldson, Toronto Blue Jays
Emerging as one of the top third-base options, Donaldson is a great source of power. Moving from a poor hitter’s park in Oakland to one of the best in Toronto, his fantasy value spiked. The negative of Donaldson is his batting average. In 158 games, he struck out 130 times on his way to a .255 average. This owner selected two pitchers in the first two rounds, so he needed a top power option. Donaldson is good, but a one-category player.
3.23 3B Adrian Beltre, Texas Rangers
Beltre will turn 36 after the first week of the regular season. However, he is still an elite option at third base. He hit at least 32 home runs in each of his last four seasons with the Rangers. Another surprising note is that Beltre continues to avoid any long-term injury. He has played 140+ games in 11 of his last 13 seasons. That kind of consistency makes it hard to pass up on Beltre. With a healthy lineup, Beltre should be a great power hitter with a .300 average.
43. After I missed out on those two third basemen, I began to look at the next best thing – a five-category player. Stanton and Rizzo will crack 30 home runs each. Ellsbury can get his fair share, but will be a nice source of speed, too. With the short porch in right field and a (hopefully) healthy lineup, Ellsbury should bounce back to his Boston numbers. I now have two of the top 10 outfielders. That’s depth.. Outfield. New York Yankees. Jacoby Ellsbury. 3.24. player
3.25 SS Ian Desmond, Washington Nationals
Desmond is one of those players that help fantasy owners more in Roto leagues than head-to-head leagues. He is another power and speed guy that plays at a shallow position. He was a 20-20 player in each of the last three seasons. However, just like with Donaldson, his average was a mere .255. Outside of Tulo and a couple of others, Desmond is one of the best. Yet, that should be your reason to pass on Desmond. This kind of player is a risk this early in the draft.
3.26 1B/DH Victor Martinez, Detroit Tigers
Martinez was a bona fide top-20 player. Yet, offseason knee surgery dropped his value a little. Reports indicate that he should be ready for the regular season, so taking him in the third round would prove to be great value. As far as 2014 goes, those numbers seem to be outliers when compared to the rest of his career. It was the first season he hit over 30 home runs, first with a .400+ OBP and first with 70 walks. He may see some regression, but still worthy enough of a top-30 pick.
3.27 SP Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
Probably one of the most inury-prone pitchers in the league, but Strasburg still gets drafted within the first three rounds every year. Maybe things have changed. He started 28 in 2012, 30 in 2013 and 34 last season. He finally eclipsed 200 innings and 200 strikeouts. Strasburg is on the fringe of a top-10 spot. You may be able to find more consistent options, but this could be his year.
3.28 SP David Price, Tigers
The Price hype may be a little exaggerated heading into 2015. He finished the 2014 season with a 15-12 record, allowed a career-high 25 home runs and 230 hits. While most of those stats came in the first half of the season with Tampa Bay, he wasn’t much better in Detroit. In 11 starts with the Tigers, he had a 3.59 ERA and 1.146 WHIP. With the inconsistencies of his strike-out totals and ground ball rate, there is cause for concern.
3.29 OF Michael Brantley, Cleveland Indians
Last season put Brantley on the map. To go with his contact and speed, he added power to the mix. Brantley finished with 200 hits, 20 home runs, 97 RBI and 23 stolen bases with a .327 average. However, Brantley hit 15 of those home runs before the All-Star break before going back to his typical batting style. That’s not to diminish his fantasy value. He has great ability to drive the ball into the gaps and get into scoring position on his own by stealing some bases. He should be drafted as a top-10 outfielder.
3.30 SP Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds
After his 2013 season was cut short, Cueto bounced back in a big way. He made a league-tying 34 starts, winning a career-high 20 games and posted a career-best 2.25 ERA. It was also his best season for K/9, posting almost a strikeout per inning. All of those stats made him the best pitcher in fantasy points and finished second to Clayton Kershaw in Roto leagues. Cueto always seems to slide under the radar in drafts, falling to the third or even fourth round. As the ace of the staff, he should see a sub-2.40 ERA a a top-10 starting pitcher. He is a great pick here.