Kansas City Royals 2015 MLB season preview and predictions
By Will Osgood
Key Additions/Subtractions
Key Addition(s) & How Acquired:
P Edinson Volquez (Free Agent; 2014 team: Pittsburgh Pirates)
A few things stand out about Edinson Volquez—who the Royals pretty boldly declared would replace James Shields way back before Shields was anywhere near making a decision in free agency. One, despite already pitching in the big leagues for 10 years, Volquez is just 31-years-old.
Two, he’s never hit 200 innings pitched for a season (not counting playoffs) and has only surpassed 180 three times. Three, only twice has he had an ERA under 4.00—in 2008, his official rookie year, and last season at 3.04.
His numbers—no matter how they are digested—are not terribly impressive. His FIP (fielding independent pitching) was 4.15 a year ago, indicating that much of Volquez’s success in Pittsburgh a season ago was due to outstanding defense. That makes sense given that Volquez had his lowest strikeout/9-innings ratio of his career, striking out just 6.5 batters/9 innings.
That is where the Royals hope to find value in Volquez, as they were one of the finest defensive teams in 2014.
DH Kendrys Morales (Free Agent; 2014 team: Minnesota Twins & Seattle Mariners)
Interestingly, or perhaps scary if you are the Royals, Kendrys Morales has only played over 100 games in three major league seasons (he came up two games short in 2014 despite significant injuries). He’s an oft-injured star, if he just were able to stay in the lineup with any regularity.
With the exception of 2010 when he played in just 51 games, it is the 100-plus game seasons which were Morales’ best. In 2009 he hit .306 with a .355 on-base percentage, .569 slugging percentage and .924 OPS as he finished fifth in the American League MVP voting as the Angels’ first baseman.
The Royals are not expecting that kind of production in 2015. They’d likely be okay with the 23 homers and 80 runs driven in he had in 2013 with Seattle as he hit .277.
After all Morales is replacing Billy Butler as the Royals’ primary designated hitter—a role he’s known well throughout his career.
OF Alex Rios (Free Agent; 2014 team: Texas Rangers)
Alex Rios had a down year in 2014. He hit just four home runs. You read that right, 4. To put that in context, the slap happy Nori Aoki—who Rios is replacing with the Royals—hit 10 and eight home runs in his first two seasons in the big leagues with Milwaukee (though he hit just one last season).
Despite a natural power stroke, Rios has had some shockingly low home run totals over the course of his career. But the Royals are obviously okay with that—if he hits more than one in 2015, he will have outproduced Aoki in that category.
At the same time, Rios is known as a better outfield defender than Aoki with a better arm in particular. They lose some on-base percentage, gain a bit of power (seemingly) and add a better arm in right field.
P Kris Medlen (Free Agent; 2014 team: Atlanta Braves [DNP])
Kris Medlen had an interesting career in Atlanta. He alternated between the starting rotation and the bullpen, often in the same season. For instance he pitched in 31 games for the Braves in 2010, 14 of them as a starter.
The contrast was even more drastic in 2012, when he pitched in 50 games, starting 12 of them. It was in that season as a part-time starter, majority of the time reliever when Medlen was at his finest, posting a 1.57 ERA with a 0.913 WHIP.
Legitimate questions, it seems, can be asked about what role Medlen takes with the Royals. Do they start him or use him out of the bullpen? Often those questions are answered one way coming out of Spring, and circumstances (surrounding injuries generally) or performance direct a change in direction be taken.
He will start the year on the disabled list as he’s still recovering from his Tommy John surgery he suffered which caused him to miss all of last season. To make up for Medlen’s injury, the Royals also signed veteran free agent Chris Young earlier this week.
Key Subtraction(s):
OF Nori Aoki (left in free agency; 2015 team: San Francisco Giants)
Dare I say the Royals are taking a bit of a risk by not retaining Nori Aoki, who was key to their success in 2014. Though Aoki would often be pulled late in games for defense or even for base stealing purposes, his value was that he was one of the few Royals willing to see pitches and swing at strikes alone.
His contact rate was among baseball’s best in 2014, and his K rate was nothing short of amazing. The Royals have elected to take analytics and try to find guys who can make the most with their swings rather than be pitch selective, overall. But losing a pitch selective, high contact rate hitter is potentially a very tough pill to swallow.
SP James Shields (left in free agency; 2015 team: San Diego Padres)
“Big Game James” is a bit of a misnomer for James Shields, who garnered a four-year deal with the San Diego Padres in February. At 33 years of age, Shields is not likely to improve any. He probably is at this point what he is, with warts and sparkles.
Interestingly, Shields has a career 5.46 ERA in the postseason, and that is not due solely to his struggles in this year’s playoffs. Even in 2008, clearly his best postseason performance, his WHIP was north of 1.3.
He was good during the regular season: 3.21 ERA with a solid 1.18 WHIP and only has three seasons with an ERA of 4.00 or worse. Shields is great as a guy who helps teams make the playoffs. His greatest contribution in that realm is the number of innings he throws. He hasn’t had fewer than 203 innings pitched since his rookie year in 2006.
That is primarily what the Royals lose with Shields’ departure. But with an outstanding bullpen, those innings may be less necessary than they are for other franchises.
1B/DH Billy Butler (left in free agency; 2015 team: Oakland Athletics)
If Oakland A’s general manager Billy Beane wants you, there must be something right with you. Beane, of course was the subject of the now well-known book, Moneyball, by Michael Lewis. As a result of that book, everyone knows that Beane is more interested in a player’s statistical value than all other evaluation criterion combined.
Yet a brief overview of Butler’s statistics do not seem to support the notion that he is a “sabermetrics”-friendly commodity, at least not based on his 2014 numbers: .271/.323/.379/.702 (average/OBP/Slugging/OPS) with just nine home runs and 66 RBI—not to mention only 41 walks in 151 games played.
Those were just 2014 numbers—surprisingly produced in the Royals’ best season in nearly three decades—but they may signal a dip in Butler’s production over time. The Royals are betting, and thus likely hoping—they are right in that assessment.
Next: The 2015 Royals to watch