San Diego Padres 2015 MLB team preview and predictions

Key Additions/Subtractions

Key Addition(s) & How Acquired:

OF Matt Kemp (Acquired in trade with LA Dodgers)

OF Wil Myers (Acquired in trade with Tampa Bay)

OF Justin Upton (Acquired in trade with Atlanta)

C Derek Norris (Acquired in trade with Oakland)

3B Will Middlebrooks (Acquired in trade with Boston)

SP James Shields (Acquired as free agent; 2014 team: Kansas City Royals)

Frankly, there are far too many additions to treat each new Padre individually. Instead a few statements will have to do regarding the plethora of new Friars. Not a ton needs to be said about this group. They have been discussed seemingly ad nauseam this entire offseason.

But there are a few key notes. First look at the wins above replacement for each of the five position players.

Matt Kemp: 3.8 oWAR, -3.1 dWAR=0.7 WAR

Wil Myers: -0.2 oWAR, -1.1 dWAR= -1.3 WAR

Justin Upton: 3.5 oWAR, -0.9 dWAR= 2.6 WAR

Derek Norris: 3.2 oWAR, 0.5 dWAR= 3.7 WAR

Will Middlebrooks: -0.9 oWAR, -0.3 dWAR= -1.2 WAR

Total oWAR = 9.4; Total dWAR = -5.5; Total WAR = 4.5

Shields was intentionally left out for now, since he is a pitcher, and pitching as we’ve already seen was not the Padres’ problem in 2014. Hitting was.

Now if you take just last season’s WAR scores, we see that the five Padres position players contributed 9.4 offensive wins above replacement. For their high-priced nature, you’d expect more than that for five players. Add in that on the whole, the unit was significantly worse combined as a defensive group. So the question becomes whether the Padres really improved their roster in 2015 that much?

Time will tell. One thing is for sure, it’s by far the most powerful lineup the Padres have ever had while playing at Petco Park.

Key Subtraction(s):

C Yasmani Grandal (Traded to LA Dodgers in Matt Kemp deal)

Yasmani Grandal became a big time name as the full-time starting catcher for the Padres in 2014 after Nick Hundley was shipped to Baltimore. Like the other two catchers who played for the Padres, he finished in the positive ledger for runs saved and as one of the best pitch framers in baseball.

Derek Norris is also a fine defensive catcher, and it’s pretty clear that the Padres know how to coach pitch framing given that all three catchers finished strongly in that category a year ago. Grandal was an effective offensive player as he put up a .728 OPS—not bad for a catcher. Norris is capable of reproducing that as well.

OF Seth Smith (Traded to Seattle Mariners)

Seth Smith was a rare bright spot for the Padres’ offense in 2014. In 521 plate appearances (spanning 136 games), he hit a respectable .266. But more importantly he got on base at .367 clip and slugged a decent .440 (even more decent given that he played around half his games in Yosemite.

But in trading for not one, not two but three outfielders, Smith simply was not needed in the remade Padres lineup. And so in late December, Preller shipped him to Seattle where he can essentially reprise his role with the Padres but do so as a DH and pinch hitter primarily, but also spot start in the outfield.

What’s potentially important is the move brought back Brandon Maurer, a potential arm for the Padres’ somewhat questionable bullpen (at least in terms of who fits where).

Next: Who are the Padres to watch in 2015?