San Diego Padres 2015 MLB team preview and predictions

3 Keys for Success

1. New Additions provide expected power & run production

Despite a horrifically down year in 2013 when he slugged a pitiful .395, Matt Kemp is still slugging an impressive .495 for his career in nine seasons. To put it in a more traditional manner, Kemp has four seasons of 25-plus home runs and another with 23. Justin Upton also has four seasons of 25-plus homers in eight professional seasons.

Upton has a career .476 slugging percentage and two seasons slugging over .500. Meanwhile in two major league seasons, Wil Myers has played approximately one full season of big league games (175). Making his totals proportional to one full regular season, Myers is an 18 home run, 81 RBI centerfielder.

If the Padres get that from him in 2015, they’ll likely be quite satisfied, assuming he doesn’t lose them too many games defensively. Ideally all three would cut down on their strikeouts.

But if the Padres’ new outfield gets on base .350 percent of the time, slugs .480 and slams 75 home runs, the Padres will have gotten their money’s worth with those three separate bold transactions.

1. Incumbent Padre position players continue 2014 production, or improve

But ultimately, the Padres’ success in 2015 is going to come back to two factors which were present a season ago. The pitching and defense (which we’ll get to soon) need to remain solid. And the Padres who wore the uniform in 2014 need to stay at the pace they set a season ago.

Everything we’ve discussed so far is based on the assumption that everything stays constant for the Padres and then the new guys add value beyond what the lineup produced a year ago.

Thus Yonder Alonso needs to do at least what he’s done in previous seasons at first base. His presence in the lineup is especially important that he figures to be the only regular starter who presents any kind of power threat from the left-handed batter’s box. That said, his career high in home runs is a miniscule nine. Only once in his career has he slugged over .400, and that was in Cincinnati (which is a launching pad compared to Petco Park) in 2011 in 47 games.

We already said the Padres were bad offensively in 2015. But starting shortstop Everth Cabrera only furthers that argument. His on-base percentage in 2014 was a horrific .272. That will not cut it. In a 2013 All-Star season, Cabrera managed to get on base .355 percent of the time. He doesn’t necessarily have to reach that again, but he needs to be at or above his career .319 OBP.

Jedd Gyorko finished 2013 sixth in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. The second baseman had to juggle learning to play third base after Chase Headley was traded, but still regressed significantly at the plate, seeing his OPS drop from .745 to .612. Gyorko is back at second base in 2015, and should hit in a more comfortable spot in the lineup. .745 would be just fine for what figures to be an explosive offense.

1. Pitching & defense remains strength of the team

As much as the brand appeal of the Padres’ new acquisitions is sexy, as we’ve already shown, it is unlikely to be net them considerably more wins in 2015. The reason the Padres even finished a somewhat respectable 77-85 a year ago was pitching; all pitching.

That’s how they will ultimately rise above the .500 plateau—should they. Yes, the new bats ought to help. And there’s a chance the numbers lie and in fact, the four or five new faces in the everyday lineup actually produce 10-12 additional wins. But let’s assume it will be the work of Tyson Ross, James Shields and Andrew Cashner primarily which really gives the Padres a chance to compete in the NL West this season.

Of course, with four five new players in the field—who combine for a negative dWAR score—it is a bit disconcerting. The Padres were a strong defensive team in 2014. Can they repeat that with their new masher lineup? Or will they sacrifice range and defensive runs saved for a few extra in the other half of the inning?

Next: And the verdict is...