NBA Awards Watch: The Final Ballot

Rookie of the Year

1. Andrew Wiggins, Minnesota Timberwolves – Choosing anyone other than Andrew Wiggins as the Rookie of the Year is getting too cute. The workload assigned to “Maple Jordan” has been staggering, with Flip Saunders deploying him for 36.2 minutes per game at the ages of 19 and 20, but Wiggins has responded with strong two-way play. The number one pick averages 16.8 points and 4.5 rebounds per game for the season while playing strong defense (often against the opposition’s best player), and with an uptick in efficiency, a star-level effort is in the works. There are players who have been better on a per-minute basis, but workload matters when evaluating overall contribution, and no one approaches Wiggins in terms of degree of difficulty. He’s the wire-to-wire winner, and frankly, it isn’t all that close.
2. Nerlens Noel, Philadelphia 76ers – If the NBA season began in February, Nerlens Noel would be the Rookie of the Year but, well, it doesn’t. That isn’t a shot at Noel, who has been outstanding this season, but not even his averages of 13.1 points, 10.0 rebounds, 2.3 blocks and 2.1 steals per game since the All-Star break could narrow the gap against Wiggins. The former Kentucky big man still has shortcomings offensively (46.2% from the floor this season), but Noel is the best defender in this class by a wide margin, and that certainly matters, especially when remembering that he anchors an above-average defensive group in Philadelphia. Nerlens Noel is very good, but in a season-long context, he falls slightly short.
3. Elfrid Payton, Orlando Magic – Much like Noel, Elfrid Payton’s candidacy looks a lot better if the season began at the All-Star break. Since that point, Payton averages 11.4 points, 8.4 assists and 5.5 rebounds per game, but prior to that, the numbers are far less impressive. It must be noted that Payton is already a solid defender at a very important position, and that matters, but the difference between Payton and fourth-place forward Nikola Mirotic is razor thin. I’m a big fan of Elfrid Payton’s game as something of an evolutionary Rajon Rondo, but shooting still matters at that position, and it costs him perception points at this stage.

Next: Most Valuable Player