NBA Awards Watch: The Final Ballot
By Brad Rowland
Most Valuable Player
- Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors – This one is a photo finish, but I’m going with Curry. The most “valuable” player distinction always makes this interesting, but Curry has just been so electric on a per-minute basis that it is impossible to ignore his huge contribution to the best team in the league. For a snapshot, Curry leads the NBA in win shares per 48 minutes, three-pointers (284, an NBA record), free throw percentage and VORP (value over replacement level), but perhaps the most telling stat is what happens when Curry leaves the floor. For the season, Golden State has been outscored (!) when Curry is out of the game, but when he plays, the Warriors are +16.2 points per 100 possessions, and that is a pace that blows away the opposition. One of the “knocks” on his candidacy is that Curry plays only 32.8 minutes per game, but that is a combination of responsible deployment from Steve Kerr and a great deal of blowout wins, and the sharpshooter’s per-36 minute averages (26.2 points, 8.5 assists) align with anyone in the NBA. It has been a majestic season for the Golden State Warriors, but without Stephen Curry, none of that takes place. He’s my MVP.
- James Harden, Houston Rockets – It has been an incredible season for James Harden. In the extended absence of Dwight Howard, Harden kept the Rockets firmly in the mix for home-court advantage in the Western Conference by posting a 31.4% usage rate, and no one operates with a higher workload on the offensive end of the floor in today’s NBA. Harden’s per-game averages (27.5 points, 6.9 assists, 5.6 rebounds) speak for themselves in cementing him as an elite player, and the job that he has done with a limited supporting cast cannot be overstated. Still, context matters, and in a year when Curry’s numbers (especially in the on/off category) are so jarring, it isn’t enough for me to hand him a first-place vote. I will freely admit that I didn’t see this ceiling coming from James Harden, though, and Rockets fans have every right to shill for their guy as the MVP.
- Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers – This is a two-man race, and it has been a two-man race for some time. With that on the table, someone has to finish third, and I’m going with Chris Paul over the likes of Russell Westbrook, Anthony Davis and LeBron James. Paul has appeared in 81 games, and that is perhaps the biggest hat-tip in his direction from an MVP standpoint, as each of his competitors missed extended time for different reasons. That isn’t to say that durability is Paul’s main asset, though, as he has been incredible on both ends of the floor. At this stage, he is the best defender between the four candidates (yes, even including Anthony Davis) and with 19.0 points and a league-leading 10.3 assists per game, the raw statistics are there. Throw in a 49/39/90 shooting line for the season and the fact that Chris Paul has strapped the Clippers to his back at every turn this season, and he gets the nod. Flame away.
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