5 ways the New York Mets can stumble
By CM Towle
The New York Mets are currently the best team in MLB with a 13-3 record, but here’s five reasons why could go up in smoke.
It certainly stands out, that 13-3 record, good for top of the NL East and even better, good for best in all of baseball. That record belongs to the New York Mets who are off to a scorching hot start. But will it last? There’s a lot of games between April and September and teams that start hot in the first half, don’t always finish that way. In fact, sometimes teams don’t just fade at the end, they completely collapse, making the first part of the season seem like a distant dream.
If that sounds absurd, just look at the 2014 Brewers. Racing out to a 20-7 record, the Brewers looked like they were about to have a fantastic season and maybe even win the NL Central. Unfortunately, the free-swinging offense completely disappeared in September and their 9-22 finish at the end of the season kept them out of the postseason. Could the same thing happen to the Mets? It sure could. Let’s look at how.
1.Injuries. These are obviously impossible to predict, but no team escapes the injury bug completely over a 162 game season. An injury to a member of their rotation or someone like Lucas Duda who is currently leading the team stats in average, hits and OBP, could send them into a spiral they might not recover from. Just look how key injuries to a member of their rotation, Matt Cain, and batting/fielding in Hunter Pence, has gotten the Giants to a slow start. Or, for the worst luck ever, the injury-decimated Rangers from last year. Injuries can quickly kill any team’s season.
2.Unsustainable performances. Currently, the Mets are benefiting from 41 year old pitcher Bartolo Colon’s hot start. He has four wins, zero losses and a 2.77 ERA. NL Rookie of the Year Jacob deGrom is helping quite a bit as well with his 0.93 ERA. The Mets are also 6-1 in one run games of late, which suggests a bit of luck helping them out.
3.They’ve only faced their division. This is the scenario where the Mets’ success is completely predicated on the fact that they have only beaten divisional opponents so far this season. The Marlins and Phillies are both looking terrible so far this year and the Nationals are still below .500 themselves. The Braves are 8-7, but six of those wins came over the Marlins. So the Mets might only be looking good on the surface. Of course, this can also work the other way with the Phillies and Marlins looking bad because they’ve played the Mets so much.
4.Dillon Gee. Right-hander Gee is at the back end of the Mets rotation with a 5.60 ERA and it was 7.59 yesterday. This is where injuries come into play. If Zack Wheeler hadn’t ended up needing Tommy John at the start of the season, Gee would likely not be in the rotation. Another injury and another mediocre pitcher could join the rotation and take away the Mets’ advantage in that area.
5.Travis d’Arnaud. The Mets starting catcher broke his hand earlier in the week and isn’t expected to return until June. So far the Mets haven’t been overly affected by it, i.e. they’re still winning, but d’Arnaud was leading the team with 10 RBI and the Mets will finally be heading out of their division on Friday. It remains to be seen whether d’Arnaud’s absence will seriously affect the team, but if it does, it might happen sooner rather than later with the Mets scheduled to face the Reds, Orioles, Cardinals and Pirates in the next month.
The next month of facing non-divisional opponents will be crucial to getting a better idea of whether the Mets’ success is sustainable or not.