MLB Postseason Contenders or Pretenders?

On Sunday May 3, the Houston Astros beat the Seattle Mariners 7-6, which pushed their winning streak to ten. With a record of 18-7, the Astros held a seven-game lead in the American League West and owned the best record in baseball.

As of Wednesday, the Astros have lost three games in a row, already showing signs that they aren’t going to be nearly as dominant throughout 162 games as they were in the first 25, but such a strong start is obviously an incredible sign that the rebuilding in Houston is nearly complete and this franchise is ready to contend again.

There’s no possible way the Astros can keep up their current pace (which would result in 104 wins), but can they still win enough to make it to the postseason?

The pitching staff has been very good overall, and Dallas Keuchel (3-0, 0.80 ER, 21 hits and 30 strikeouts in 45 innings) looks like a contender for the Cy Young Award. Houston ranking in the top four in the AL in ERA (3.49, 4^th), hits *218, 4^th), and runs allowed (108, 4^th). The bullpen has been outstanding with a .173 opponent batting average that ranks second in the big leagues and a 2.16 ERA that is fourth overall.

Plus, led by Jake Marisnick, Jose Altuve and Colby Rasmus, the team has hit well. Despite a team batting average of .238 and an on-base percentage of .312, Houston has 42 home runs through their first 28 games, which is the most in the AL, and they also lead the league with 33 stolen bases. Eight players have at least three home runs and double-digit RBIs and the team has 99 walks as well, which ranks third in the league.

Also, Houston has played solid defense thus far. They have the third best fielding percentage in the AL and the fourth fewest errors, as well as the second best rate of turning batted balls into outs, all of which are easier to sustain than above average hitting.

However, there are areas of concern. Houston has 257 strikeouts, which are the most in the AL, other than Keuchel and Collin McHugh, the team doesn’t have a starter with an ERA under 4.25 and the bullpen is stocked with journeyman veterans that are difficult to trust for long periods of time.

Injuries have also taken a toll already. Shortstop Jed Lowrie is currently on the 15-day disabled list with a torn ligament in his thumb, which will keep him out of the lineup until at least late July, and slugger George Springer was placed on the 7-day DL for a concussion suffered May 6. Pitcher Brett Oberholtzer is nearly ready after beginning the season on the DL, but Brad Peacock is out until June.

I firmly believe that bright days are ahead in Houston. After suffering through six straight losing seasons – three of which resulted in 106 losses or more – the Astros are very close to reaching the light at the end of the tunnel of their rebuilding efforts. I just don’t think they get there in 2015.

The Astros are a: Pretender

Next: New York Mets