Is Prince Fielder a darkhorse MVP candidate?

The Texas Rangers are competing behind a great bounce-back season from Prince Fielder.

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Coming into the 2015 season, the Texas Rangers appeared headed for another rebuilding campaign.

Texas finished last year at 67-95, looked to have holes all over the roster, and lost ace pitcher Yu Darvish for the year in March. Improbably, the Rangers sit at 31-27, just two games back of the American League West lead.

The spark for the Rangers’ offense has been a resurgent campaign from slugger Prince Fielder. Fielder had a miserable debut season in Texas, hitting three home runs in 42 games before undergoing season-ending neck surgery. This year, Fielder has a .354/.411/.541 line with 10 home runs in 57 games, via FanGraphs.com.

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Fielder’s 163 wRC+ is tied for third in the American League and would be the best mark of his career if the season ended today. With Texas surprisingly competing and Fielder mashing, he has clearly been one of the most important players in the majors.

If the season ended today, Fielder would likely get a few scattered MVP votes, which nobody could have seen coming before the season. Despite the brilliant year, Fielder’s actual chances of winning the award are slim to none.

As advanced statistics become more and more pertinent in awards voting, defensive value and baserunning becomes more important for a candidate’s chances. Even with the great offensive numbers, Fielder has a total of just 1.6 Wins Above Replacement, as he provides no defensive value playing DH most of the time.

That number can’t compare to MVP-favorite Mike Trout’s 3.3 WAR or Josh Donaldson’s total of 3.6. WAR isn’t a deciding factor in MVP voting (nor should it be), but that’s too large of a gap to justify voting Fielder in first place.

An all-offense, no-defense slugger has to have a truly special season to win the MVP. All Miguel Cabrera did in 2012 was win the Triple Crown, and the decision to vote him MVP over Trout was still very controversial.

Fielder will need to up his home run total to have a serious shot at standing out to voters. He’s hitting for some power with 10 home runs, but that isn’t enough, even with the great slash line.

If the voters are interested in making an offense-only slugger the MVP, Nelson Cruz has been even better at the plate and Cabrera has been comparable. The field is simply too crowded, with Donaldson, Trout, Jason Kipnis and Cruz emerging as favorites at the moment.

Fielder has had a brilliant season and deserves recognition, perhaps with a top-10 MVP finish or Comeback Player of the Year Award. But he faces an uphill battle to actually win the MVP.

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