Slow down on Maryland Terrapins as NCAA Title Favorite

Everyone should maybe slow down on Maryland as the NCAA title favorite

There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the Maryland Terrapins in advance of the 2015-2016 college basketball season.

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For starters, Maryland had a fantastic year in 2014-2015. Mark Turgeon and his club finished with a sparkling 28-7 record and a second-place finish in the Big Ten during the regular season, and while the Terps had an early exit in the NCAA Tournament (falling to West Virginia in the Round of 32), that type of campaign inspires all kinds of confidence among fans and pundits alike.

Following the season, there was some unrest with Maryland’s roster. Lead guard Melo Trimble flirted openly with the NBA (and swingman Jake Layman joined him), but the All-American candidate elected to return for a second campaign in the college ranks. Beyond that, the Terps added one of the best college transfers in the country in former Georgia Tech power forward Robert Carter, and that fortified what was already a strong returning class.

Then, Maryland made two more big splashes.

First, top-10 high school recruit Diamond Stone committed to play for Turgeon and his staff, and he is seen as one of the better offensive big men in the Class of 2015. Stone’s presence gives Maryland a legitimate interior option in terms of scoring punch, and when paired with Trimble, it is easy to get excited about Maryland’s upside on that end.

Following the signing of Stone, the Turtles (yes, the Turtles) received a welcome surprise in the form of Duke transfer Rasheed Sulaimon. Sulaimon was the first player in history to receive walking papers from Coach K in the middle of a season, and while he is certainly a reasonably effective player, this is where the consensus of Maryland’s roster splits with reality.

Simply put, Rasheed Sulaimon isn’t enough to swing the pendulum.

The Maryland Terrapins, rightly, were seen as a top-10 team in terms of preseason expectations before the arrival of Sulaimon. Inexplicably, his presence has vaulted them to the top of many lists around the country, and that doesn’t quite line up with the player that Sulaimon has established himself to be.

Turgeon’s squad will have a significant hole to fill following the graduation of veteran guard Dez Wells, but in terms of what we have seen, there is a real drop from Wells to Sulaimon, and there isn’t a great deal of evidence to suggest that Sulaimon is a steep upgrade from the previously available talent. Sulaimon’s best asset is likely his three-point shooting, where the three-year player at Duke shot better than 40% in two straight seasons prior to his departure. However, his efficiency and overall production declined each year after a solid freshman campaign, and he was unceremoniously displaced by younger, more talented options in Durham.

This isn’t to say that Rasheed Sulaimon isn’t a viable Big Ten starter, because he certainly fits that bill. However, the notion that he is a difference maker and any blind faith in Diamond Stone as an immediately dominant player is misguided at the very least.

Maryland’s current status as somewhat of an “overrated” team isn’t solely tied to Sulaimon, however, as the Terps overachieved when compared with their talent in 2014-2015. Ken Pomeroy, who is the leading voice in college basketball analytics, compiles a “luck” statistic each season, and without belaboring the details, Maryland finished as the second-luckiest team in America. That, along with more middle-of-the-road advanced metrics, placed the Terps as the just the 32nd-ranked team in the country according to Pomeroy, falling behind the likes of Texas (20-14), Providence (22-12) and perennial underachiever Georgetown (22-11).

To be fair (and balanced), Maryland played at a level that most would consider a top-20 clip last season, and even with the loss of the aforementioned Wells, the 2015-2016 roster appears to be more advanced than the 2014-2015 edition. Throw in what should be an uptick from Melo Trimble, and it is evident that the Terps will be in the mix for the Big Ten title throughout the season.

Still, the overriding narrative that suggests the Maryland Terrapins should be a candidate for number one in the country is misguided, and as such, it is time to slow things down. Mark Turgeon will undoubtedly be pleased with his team’s chances in advance of the season, but the Terps shouldn’t be anointed just yet.

Slow down on Maryland Terrapins as NCAA Title favorite

By Brad Rowland | Jun 11, 2015

Everyone should maybe slow down on Maryland as the NCAA title favorite

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