MLB: 5 players who will be traded by the July 31 deadline
By Will Osgood
SP Sonny Gray, Oakland Athletics
It seems strange to say the guy currently leading the entire majors in ERA (1.60) and Pitching WAR (4.3), Sonny Gray, would be on the trade market. It’s especially weird given Billy Beane’s notable accomplishments of using statistics like WAR to unearth gems for his team.
But part of “moneyball” is for a general manager to recognize when a player’s value has superseded his own team’s ability to keep him on its roster long-term. Through nearly half a season it seems fair to conclude that Gray has been the best pitcher in baseball, a moniker that means a big contract is on the horizon.
The Oakland A’s don’t do major pay days. The three-year, $30 million deal Beane gave designated hitter Billy Butler this offseason is an anomaly.
And compared to the salaries of many high-value players in the big leagues in this day and age, it really isn’t a huge contract. Though Gray is under the Athletics’ control and arbitration-eligible through the 2019 season, it would not be unlike Beane to unload his star well before those years come.
Gray’s $512,000 one-year salary will not be the same next season. And in arbitration years, it will likely grow significantly. But the more important factor to consider is this: Gray, as arguably one of the top five starting pitchers in baseball presently, would command a healthy sum of talented prospects (or even major league-ready players), which might then allow the A’s to quicken their ascent back up to the top of the division.
At 28-39 (.418 winning percentage), the A’s were dead last in the American League through Tuesday’s games. Much of their poor record can be chalked up to bad luck, as they’ve been abysmal in one-run contests. Their expected win-loss record is 36-31, which, if it plays out, will have them just a half game behind the Houston Astros in the AL West.
The A’s are not as bad as their record. Beane could stand still, figuring the next 95 or so games will see their luck do an about-face. If it worked as such, the A’s would likely end up in the playoffs or just outside by a hair.
But even statheads recognize that sometimes a team simply has bad fortune. Sometimes a team’s destiny is to be bad, no matter what. This seems to be one of those years for Oakland.
It’s thus not unfathomable to think Beane will trade away his best piece to continue to add talent to a team which on paper should be competing in the AL West right now.
In other words, Beane could gain from a Gray trade two or three players who significantly outdo Gray’s 4.2 WAR, and in the process create a juggernaut akin to the original “moneyball” rotation.
Beane is nothing if not aggressive. Don’t think the opportunity to turn Gray into close to 10 WAR (through a little more than a third of the year), if not for this season, but one soon, is lost on Beane.
As with the other trades made previously, typical baseball analysts would laugh, chide and mock him. But if we have learned anything from watching Beane wheel and deal over the years, it’s that he has a tendency to make us look like jerks.
If he wants to do it, there will be a great many teams prepared to unload a prospect and major league player for Gray. The Cubs could once again be a trade partner. So too could the New York Yankees, or the pitching-deprived Toronto Blue Jays.
The point is simple: teams would be all-in on Gray. And Beane could gain a huge return for him. Thus expect Gray to be dealt by the July 31 deadline.
Next: Another starting pitcher everyone believes will be traded