MLB: 5 players who will be traded by the July 31 deadline
By Will Osgood
2B Chase Utley And/Or 1B Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies
One of the problems in compiling a list of players who could or should be traded before the July 31 trade deadline is a rather unique one. Most of the teams you’d tend to deem “sellers” – i.e. sub-.500 squads – don’t usually have the proper criteria for a deadline deal: a contract up at the end of the season.
Of course when saying that, we’re talking about players who make for potential blockbuster trades. Undoubtedly there will be deals done which are far from sexy. But this article isn’t about those kinds of deals.
This is meant to be about big names who could switch locales within the next 45 days.
So I’m cheating a bit here. Philadelphia Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro would be wise to sell both Chase Utley and Ryan Howard if he’s able. If you’d told me this time a year ago the more difficult sell would be Utley, I’d have told you that you’re crazy.
Yet as we sit here a few days before the official start of summer, Howard has 11 home runs (as many as he had in the entire 2013 season) and 14 doubles, which puts him on pace for his best extra base hit season since 2011. Granted he is still doing so in a hitter-friendly park, but as bad as he’s been the past few years, a man’s got to start somewhere.
Meanwhile Utley is hitting .183 with a .263 on-base percentage and has just four home runs. His OPS is still better than Omar Infante – who Monday overtook Jose Altuve for the lead in the American League All-Star voting at second base – but frankly that isn’t saying much.
So why will either be traded? At this point Amaro must either swallow his pride, or take some Smart Water and recognize he isn’t going to get anything in return for these guys if he doesn’t sell now. The Phillies are 22-44 (.333 winning percentage) and have a -111 run differential.
For context, the next worst run differential is -72 from the Milwaukee Brewers. In other words, the Phillies stink.
And I bring those facts up to prove one simple, yet fairly obvious point: The Phillies are not going anywhere this season (probably nowhere next year either), and this is especially true if Howard and Utley remain on the team contributing little more than another year of age to the Phillies’ roster.
Where it gets tricky for Amaro, should he wise up, is finding a trade partner – especially for Utley. Utley has always been a solid defensive second baseman, but at 36-years-old he does not have the range he once did. And with the offensive numbers as defunct as they are, it’s not like some American League team is going to come calling for him to fill a designated hitter role.
This move might once and for all prove A.J. Preller is not of sound mind and is only trying to put together an All-Names Team, but the Padres could be players for Utley. Here me out for a moment on this one.
One, he fills a position where the Padres are weak – they just optioned Jedd Gyorko to Triple-A. Two, Utley’s lack of power doesn’t really matter since hardly anyone wearing the “SD” on their hat, not named Justin Upton, hits home runs at Petco Park anyway.
In a sense, Utley could re-find his swing and begin driving the ball to the gaps, which has always been when he’s at his best. Utley also happens to be a San Diego area native, so I doubt he’d waive this deal if it were made. He’s probably not going anywhere else, even though other teams may be able to offer the Phils better compensation.
As for Howard, the market is a little more favorable for him. One, he is hitting well enough to be considered by an AL team as a designated hitter who can also man first base from time-to-time. And if he gets hot, he could even potentially start at first in an NL park.
Though his deal is richer than Utley’s, Howard’s strikeout rate (28.3 percent) is the lowest it’s been in the last four years. He’s not walking a ton – only 11 through 60 games – but that can be explained by the fact he’s not seeing many pitches to drive, and thus has been overaggressive. If he were to be surrounded by better talent in the lineup, it makes sense that he’d take a more selective approach at the plate.
As for fits, St. Louis – now starting Mark Reynolds at first base – seems like a natural one. Howard is famously a St. Louis area product and could benefit from what, at least until Tuesday, has been considered one of the most stable and classiest organizations in baseball. A move to St. Louis would represent about the greatest shift in competency of the front offices (insert jokes at your own risk) a baseball player could possibly undergo.
The on-the-field benefits in St. Louis are also outstanding. The Cardinals have historically been reticent to take on salaries like Howard’s, especially since he hasn’t lived up to it. But the Phillies will have paid approximately half of his 2015 salary at this point, and are not a “small market team” – meaning they may be able to pick up some of the money for the final two years of his deal that runs through the 2017 season.
And best of all, the Cardinals are among the leading franchises in terms of minor league depth and prospects. Hence, they have chips the Phillies should be interested in.
You may appropriately ask why I’ve mentioned the Phillies and not thrown in Cole Hamels and/or Jonathan Papelbon? Fair question.
The answer is that everyone knows those two are likely on the block. While this list was intended to highlight marquee names, it was supposed to also entail players who may not be obvious trade deadline deal guys. Also, it wouldn’t haven’t been a ton of fun to have a list where four of the players were Phillies.
Make no mistake, though, the Phillies ought to be trying to rid themselves of all four players, if only for the sake of improving their farm system and gaining the kind of talent that can lead to a turnaround in 2017, if not sooner.