NFL quarterback power rankings

32. Josh McCown/Johnny Manziel, Cleveland Browns

It’s amazing: the Browns went 7-9 last year, their best record since 2007. At one point, they were in first place in the tough AFC North, and they held their own all season. And yet, as a Browns fan, this may be the least confident or excited I’ve ever been heading into a season. And that has everything to do with the two names above.

In one corner, we have Josh McCown, the career journeyman who somehow used 224 fluky passes in 2013 to hoodwink not one but two teams into giving him multiyear deals. The Browns can expect nothing but sheer mediocrity from the immortal Josh McCown.

In the other corner, we have Johnny Manziel, who will have to give up that Johnny Football nickname until we determine whether or not he can actually play the sport. His debut last season was so unspeakably awful that it defies reason. His QBR in two starts was 5.0. No, that isn’t a misplaced decimal point. Manziel’s QBR was FIVE. And somehow, he’s the more promising option here. All I can say is, it’s a good thing LeBron’s back in town.

31. Matt Cassel/EJ Manuel, Buffalo Bills

The best-case scenario for Bills quarterbacks this year, Manuel. Free from the evil clutches of Doug Marrone, Manuel can finally succeed and lead the team to the top of the division.

The more realistic scenario: the Bills probably knew what they were doing when they benched Manuel for the newly-signed Kyle Orton just one year after spending a first-round pick on him. That means the reigns will likely go to Matt Cassel, who will do Matt Cassel things. It’s too bad that a team with this much talent everywhere else is being trusted to these two. Cassel has had success before (with the Patriots in 2008 and the Chiefs in 2010), but at best he’s a fringe starter who isn’t winning you any playoff games.

30. Ryan Fitzpatrick/Geno Smith, New York Jets

Here’s another team that may be undone by its quarterback play this year. Somehow, the Jets have three Pro Bowl-caliber cornerbacks but zero above average quarterbacks. Ryan Fitzpatrick is pretty much just a guy, and Geno Smith hasn’t exactly inspired confidence so far in his career, despite getting plenty of chances. This could be a very good team this year, with a strong defense bolstered by the return of Darrelle Revis, but like the Bills, the quarterback situation could spell doom for their chances.

29. Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars

Jaguars fans everywhere (yes, they exist) should be praying and praying that Bortles isn’t Blaine Gabbert 2.0. The last thing this beleaguered franchise needs is another quarterback bust that makes them long for the days of David Garrard.

Bortles was, by most measures, the league’s worst full-time quarterback last season. No, he wasn’t Ryan Lindley, but things weren’t pretty: 17 interceptions, a 21.9 QBR, 6.1 yards per attempt. Luckily, quarterbacks aren’t defined by their rookie seasons. Bortles was learning the ropes last year; if he can show some marked improvement this year, there’s plenty of hope for him. He’s shown flashes so far, but now it’s time for him to show a bit more.

28. Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders

Historically, relying on a Carr brother has been a dicey proposition. Just ask the Houston Texans how that worked out for them.

But there’s plenty to like about member of the Carr clan. Despite an up-and-down rookie season, Carr showed some promise in leading the Raiders to a strong finish, after an 0-10 start led to talks that the team might finish 0-16. The fact that 0-16 didn’t happen is largely thanks to Carr. There’s a lot the Fresno State product needs to improve in 2015–his yards per attempt was the worst of any full-time passer last year–but the pieces are in place for Carr and the Raiders to take a step forward together. He’s easily the most promising quarterback the team has had since Rich Gannon’s MVP season in 2002…but then again, that says more about the Raiders than it does about Carr.

27. Sam Bradford/ Mark Sanchez, Philadelphia Eagles

Why, oh why, did Chip Kelly make that Sam Bradford trade? What does he see that the rest of us don’t?

I’ll tell you what I see: a mediocre, checkdown-happy quarterback who hasn’t played since October of 2013. And somehow, Chip Kelly was enamored enough to give up Nick Foles and draft picks for the former number one pick. It’s possible that Kelly has some grand plan that will make us all look like fools for questioning it, but from here, it’s hard to see what that plan might be. Except that it heavily features Sam Bradford and his 79.3 career passer rating.

26. Brian Hoyer/Ryan Mallett, Houston Texans

Here in Houston, we have another hodgepodge of mediocrity as Hoyer and Mallett battle for the starting quarterback job. Actually, that may be a little unfair: Hoyer had some success with the Browns last year, and Mallett looked promising before he got hurt.

Still, there’s a reason the Patriots traded Mallett for a seventh-round pick last September, and there’s a reason Hoyer was benched in December for Johnny Manziel even though the Browns had seen Johnny practice and knew what they were getting into. Hoyer can throw the deep ball, but he’s inaccurate, while Mallett just hasn’t played enough to show us how good he is. It’s a little better than last year’s Mallett/Ryan Fitzpatrick two-headed monster, but only just.

25. Drew Stanton/Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals

This ranking could rise if Palmer is able to return in time for the start of the season. But that seems unlikely, and even when he does return, will he be the same?

Without Palmer, the Cardinals will be left with Drew Stanton again. And while the team had considerable success last season with Stanton, going 5-3 in his starts, that had a lot more to do with the defense than anything else. Stanton’s numbers look respectable, but a closer look reveals some likely regression–Football Outsiders points out that Stanton led the league in dropped interceptions last season, despite playing in only 8 games.

That being said, Cards fans will probably take anyone other than Ryan Lindley at this point.

Next: #24-17