NFL quarterback power rankings

16. Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers

The decline of Colin Kaepernick last year was perplexing. Kaepernick was heading into his third year as the starter in San Francisco with the best receiving corp in his three years and a team ready to win and win big. Instead, the team flopped, and Kaepernick struggled, especially down the stretch. It got to the point that when five NFL executives were asked in December whether they’d rather have Kaepernick or rookie Derek Carr, the results were unanimous… in favor of Carr.

Kaepernick will have to overcome some accuracy issues, but it’s not like it’s been very long since he was good. There’s a good chance he’ll bounce back and we can forget that we ever questioned him.

15. Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions

Let me tell you a secret about Matthew Stafford: he’s actually not that great. Sure, he’s had some huge yardage years, but if you take a closer look at the numbers, they don’t favor this former first overall pick. Last season, Stafford’s  completion percentage ranked 25th among qualifiers, his yards per attempt 21st, and his QBR 19th. Those aren’t the numbers of a great quarterback, or even a very good one.

That 5,000 yard season Stafford had in 2011 is starting to look like the time the Padres’ Greg Vaughn hit 50 home runs in 1998. That was cool, and Vaughn was pretty good, but he wasn’t Mark McGwire or Sammy Sosa. That’s the case with Stafford: he can put up some big numbers, and he can take you to the playoffs, but don’t go thinking he’s Andrew Luck.

14. Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins

When Tannehill was coming out of college, I thought he had bust written all over him. He just seemed like one of those guys who gets hyped up during the interminable leadup to the NFL draft but doesn’t deserve the high draft pick.

But Tannehill has impressed so far. He hasn’t been Andrew Luck or Russell Wilson, but he’s been very accurate and has adjusted tremendously while dealing with perhaps the NFL’s worst offensive line over the last three years.

This could be a make-or-break year for Tannehill. The Dolphins have pulled out all the stops, stocking up the receiving corps, the offensive line, and the defense. Tannehill is expected to lead the team to the playoffs this year; whether he does or not will say a lot about what kind of quarterback the Dolphins have.

13. Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens

Even seven years into his career, it’s hard to know exactly what to make of Flacco. His numbers have bounced around wildly over the last few years: is he the destroyer of worlds he was in the 2012 playoffs, arguably the greatest playoff performance since Joe Montana in 1989? Or is he the middle of the road quarterback he was in 2013, throwing 22 interceptions and making the Ravens immediately start to sweat that huge extension they gave him?

The answer, as it usually is in these cases, is somewhere in the middle. Flacco hasn’t missed a start in his career, and he’s generally been good to very good. The truth is, both that 2012 playoff run and the mediocre season that followed are probably outliers. Take those out, and we get a clearer picture of Flacco: completing about 60 percent of his passes, throwing for about 3,000 yards, with a QBR in the high 50s or low 60s. Sounds like a quarterback a lot of team would love to have.

12. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers

Newton, new recipient of a contract extension in excess of $100 million, is very good, but he’ll have to improve if he wants to live up to that contract. He’s had tremendous success, especially considering the barren wasteland the Panthers’ receiver depth chart was in 2014. He’s done well judging by yards per attempt, and he’s one of the best rushing QBs in the league, but QBR hates Newton, and he could definitely improve his completion percentage.

Still, Newton’s only played four seasons so far, and there’s plenty of time to improve. Peyton Manning, for example. was very good for his first four seasons, but didn’t become Peyton Manning until 2002, his fifth season. That’s not to say that Newton is Peyton Manning. But the best may be yet to come for Cam.

11. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks

People have a tendency to judge quarterbacks based solely on wins. And while it’s unquestionably the most important position in the game, that kind of thinking can be a big shortsighted and unfair to defenses. Take Russell Wilson for example. Yes, Wilson has been to two straight Super Bowls. But here are some names of other quarterbacks who have been to the Super Bowl in the last 15 years: Rex Grossman, Colin Kaepernick, Brad Johnson, and Trent Dilfer.

This isn’t to say that Wilson is Dilfer or Johnson. It’s just to point out that Super Bowl appearances don’t automatically make a quarterback great. In many cases, it just means the defense was great.

And that’s largely the case here. But the Seahawks wouldn’t be the juggernaut they’ve become if it was Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback. Wilson brings something to this team, a combination of accurate passing and superb rushing ability. And when you have the number one defense in the league, the toughest running back to bring down, and the biggest home field advantage in the NFL, that’s more than enough to achieve greatness. Wilson doesn’t have to be anything more than he is for this team.

10. Eli Manning, New York Giants

It’s tough to rank Eli Manning. The NFL’s most famous younger brother (get that weak stuff outta here, Jordan Babineaux and Luke McCown) has vacillated between being great and bad so often that it’s hard to keep track. Sometimes, he’s leading his team to Super Bowl wins; on other occasions, he’s leading the league in interceptions.

That being said, there’s more good than bad on Eli’s resume. Though he’s led the league in interceptions in three different years(!), these are his QB ratings since 2008: 86.4, 93.1, 85.3, 92.9, 87.2, 69.4, 92.1. QB rating isn’t a great stat, but it gives you a clear picture of who’s good and who isn’t, and it’s pretty clear that Manning’s generally been very good for six of the past seven years. Plus, now he has a full season of a totally unleashed Odell Beckham Jr. Look out, everybody.

9. Tom Brady/ Jimmy Garoppolo, New England Patriots

The Patriots’ ranking for 2015 is brought down a bit by the fact that Tom Brady will miss a few games due to a very strange implementation of NFL rules, courtesy of the one and only Roger Goodell.

Brady isn’t going to throw 50 touchdowns again; those days are gone. As we saw in last year’s playoffs, he’s adjusted his game to account for the fact that he can’t make the big throws like he used to. The Patriots threw fewer deep balls than any other team last year, yet still had success thanks to the short- and mid-range game, of which Brady is a master. Don’t expect that to change when he gets back, no matter how inflated the game balls are.

Next: #8-1