5 starting quarterbacks facing do-or-die seasons
Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers
During his first year as a starter in 2012, Colin Kaepernick led the San Francisco 49ers to the Super Bowl and darn near almost won the thing. The following season he took the Niners to the NFC Championship Game, where they almost beat the future Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks. After so much early success, the 49ers locked Kaepernick up with a seven-year, $126.97 million contract (with $61 million guaranteed) in June of 2014, expecting big things from their young stud in his third year under center.
They were sorely disappointed.
Kaepernick’s numbers have steadily declined since 2012, and he seemed to regress in all areas during the 2014 season. He completed just 60.5 percent of his passes for 3,369 yards, with 19 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. His quarterback rating of 86.4 was down from a high of 98.3 in 2012 and even lower than his 91.6 mark in 2013. His Total QBR also continued to decline from 69.0 in 2012, to 65.9 in 2013 and finally 60.2 in 2014.
Kaepernick doesn’t appear to be fixing any of his glaring flaws. He has tremendous arm strength, but little idea how to use touch or throw his receivers open. Instead, he relies on gunning the ball as hard as he can to reach his targets. He doesn’t seem to have an understanding of the nuances of his position. Yes, he adds the element of being able to pick up yards with his legs (he rushed for 639 and a touchdown in 2014), but that ability tends to wane as guys reach their 30s.
In the 49ers’ 2015 season-opening win over the Minnesota Vikings, we saw his shortcomings on display again. He did complete 17 of 26 passes (65.4 percent), but only averaged 6.35 yards per attempt. He didn’t throw for a touchdown or an interception and San Francisco only picked up 165 yards through the air.
In a Week 2 loss, he doubled the output in the air, but that’s mainly because the Niners were playing from behind the whole game and were forced to throw. His two touchdowns came in the 4th quarter, after the game was well out of hand. The 49ers are paying Kaepernick like an elite quarterback, yet have to rely on their running backs and defense for wins.
At some point Kaepernick has to take that next step or he’ll just be an overpaid, underachieving physical specimen. He’ll turn 28 in November, is making $13.9 million this season and is due $16.5 million next year. That’s far too much to spend on a middling signal-caller. The 49ers could legitimately move on if he doesn’t show them something special this season.
Next: Jay Cutler