AL Wild Card Preview: Who will emerge between Yankees and Astros?

Aug 25, 2015; Bronx, NY, USA; Houston Astros center fielder Carlos Gomez (30) is restrained by home plate umpire Eric Cooper as Gomez and New York Yankees catcher John Ryan Murphy (66) go face to face after Gomez flew out in the sixth inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports /

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Sep 18, 2015; New York City, NY, USA; New York Yankees starting pitcher Masahiro Tanaka (19) delivers a pitch against the New York Mets in the first inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports /

Pitching

With so much on the line, there is no doubt that both the Yankees and the Astros are trotting out their best pitchers with their seasons on the line. That means a battle of aces is afoot with Masahiro Tanaka toeing the rubber versus Dallas Keuchel.

For Keuchel, this will be his third start of the season versus the Yankees and the Houston lefty is hoping that this game brings with it the same success as the first two. In those two games, Keuchel is 2-0 and has yet to allow an earned run over 16 innings of work, mixing in nine hits and one walk while striking out 21 Yankee hitters. New York hitters own a paltry .165/.175/.179 batting line and have just one extra base hit on the season against the Cy Young hopeful. Overall, Keuchel finished the 2015 regular season with a 20-8 record, a 2.48 ERA, a 2.91 FIP, and a 8.4 K/9 ratio.

On the other side of things, the Yankees will counter with Masahiro Tanaka. The Japanese right-hander has made just one start against the Astros in 2015, and it wasn’t a pretty one. Houston lit up Tanaka for seven hits and six earned runs over just five innings of work in a no decision earlier this year. Of those seven hits, three of them were home runs.

That’s been a running issue with Tanaka in 2015. While he’s been excellent in victories, a 2.47 ERA and a 0.753 WHIP with 10 home runs allowed in 12 starts, Tanaka has been rocked in losses (4.95 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 10 home runs – 7 starts) and no decisions (4.45 ERA, 1.121 WHIP, 5 home runs – 5 starts).

Given the game will be played in Yankee Stadium, the home run ball could be a huge factor in determining a winner. Tanaka has surrendered 25 over 154 innings of work, whereas Keuchel has allowed just 17 in 232 innings pitched. According to ESPN, Yankee Stadium ranked fourth in HR Park Factor with a 1.251 mark in 2015. That puts a lot of onus on the tonight’s pitchers to keep the ball down and in the yard.

The goal of both starters will be to go deep into the game and hand it over to their bullpen. Houston’s relievers ranked sixth in baseball with a 3.27 ERA. Meanwhile, the Yankees ranked 16th with a 3.70 ERA. While that would appear to give the Astros an advantage in that regard, but the New York’s overall performance hides the fact that they have the best one-two punch at the end of their bullpen in Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller.

Next: The Line-ups

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