Picking every NBA over/under win total

Houston Rockets – Over/Under 54.5 wins

Much like Cleveland previously, this is an over/under that I would stay far away from if possible. Houston has the potential to be even better than they were a year ago with the addition of Ty Lawson, but in the same breath, I never fully trusted the 2014-2015 Rockets and, for me, they overachieved considerably.

The health of Dwight Howard and the availability of Ty Lawson will be what swings Houston’s final record. James Harden has officially joined the ranks of the elite after an MVP-like campaign, but the Rockets can’t afford any severe injuries to Howard and we have no idea if Lawson can a) stay on the floor given his off-court issues, and b) co-exist with Harden given that he won’t be acting as the primary ball-handler.

Houston is deep and talented, and there is no denying that, but I’ll remain skeptical until I see it again. Still, this number is very reasonably set, and staying away seems like the move.

The Pick: Under (52-30)

Indiana Pacers – Over/Under 41.5 wins

This is my single favorite bet on the board.

Simply put, I can’t understand why Las Vegas is giving the Pacers this level of respect with the roster constructed in the way that it is. Yes, Paul George is a very, very good basketball player, but pegging him as an every-night power forward is a mistake in my view, and his public resistance to the idea is a gargantuan red flag. Beyond that, George’s principle attribute as an elite defensive wing is taken away when he is asked to guard power forwards, and he has always been slightly overrated as an offensive talent. The rest of the roster simply isn’t good enough, and a quick glance explains it all.

Indiana’s rotation of big men includes Ian Mahinmi, Jordan Hill, Lavoy Allen and rookie Myles Turner. That is the list. A single roster hole won’t sink a team if they are loaded everywhere else, but I’m not in love with the perimeter options either, as only George Hill and Monta Ellis (with all of his warts) are anything approaching above-average NBA players. Frank Vogel is a very good coach and that has to be mentioned, but I can’t see the Pacers cracking the .500 mark or anything close without serious roster maintenance. We can’t assume moves in-season, and with that, they are a clear “under” play.

The Pick: Under (29-53)

Next: Clippers and Lakers