Fansided

Picking every NBA over/under win total

By Brad Rowland

Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James (23) takes the court prior to the game against the Atlanta Hawks at the Cintas Center. Mandatory Credit: Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports
Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James (23) takes the court prior to the game against the Atlanta Hawks at the Cintas Center. Mandatory Credit: Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports /
facebooktwitterreddit
Prev
9 of 16
Next
Miami Heat forward Chris Bosh (left) greets guard Dwyane Wade (right) during the first half against the Houston Rockets at American Airlines Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Miami Heat forward Chris Bosh (left) greets guard Dwyane Wade (right) during the first half against the Houston Rockets at American Airlines Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports /

Memphis Grizzlies – Over/Under 50.5 wins

We’ve reached number three in our “teams you definitely shouldn’t bet either way” series, as the Grizzlies join the Cavs and Rockets for me.

Memphis is exactly what you think they are. Marc Gasol is awesome, Mike Conley remains (somehow) underrated as an elite defensive point guard who happens to be above-average offensively, and the Grizzlies are going to be well-coached while grinding out victories.

Still, this is a team with limited upside because they just don’t have the shooting and/or young talent that is ready to make a leap. Zach Randolph is the player to watch, because if he slips, the Grizzlies almost certainly aren’t reaching 50 wins in the loaded West. I’m not ready to bet against Z-Bo, though, and this feels like a 50-win team again. Since that is the number, stay far away.

The Pick: Under (49-33)

Miami Heat – Over/under 45.5 wins

Expectations for the Heat are all over the board. I expected this number to come out at a place where I would happily take the under, but Las Vegas is taking the measured approach by sticking Miami in the mid-40’s. For me, Miami isn’t quite at the level of Atlanta, Washington (we’ll get there) and Chicago, but the Heat are comfortably among the top five in the East for me, leading to the over pick here.

The big question, as seemingly always, for Miami is the health and availability of Dwyane Wade. It was Chris Bosh that missed extended time a year ago, but that was a “fluke” occurrence and he appears to be ready to go, while Wade adds another year of mileage to his legs. Because Miami isn’t the deepest team around, they need Wade to carry the offense on the wing, and I don’t fully trust that for more than 55-60 games.

If you’re building the argument against the Heat, it centers on Luol Deng’s slippage and the uncertainty of Hassan Whiteside. Both are concerns, but I think Bosh and Wade are too good to ignore, and a full season of integration for Goran Dragic at the point should help a great deal. I like Miami this season, especially when expectations are tempered to the level of his over/under number.

The Pick: Over (47-35)

Next: Bucks and T-Wolves

Home/Atlanta Hawks