MLB Free Agency: Who could accept the qualifying offer?

Players who will decline

There are a number of players offered a qualifying offer who have no chance of accepting. They’ll happily take their chances on the open market.

1. Jason Heyward: Heyward could get the largest contract of anyone this offseason. He will get in excess of $20,000,000 and he’s going to get at a bare minimum six years. Eight years wouldn’t surprise anyone. Even if he wants to stay in St. Louis, the Cardinals are one of the teams who will likely be willing to give him the huge contract that he desires.
2. Zack Greinke: Greinke will absolutely not accept his qualifying offer. He’s arguably the best pitcher set to become a free agent. He’s going to get in excess of $20,000,000 per season and could easily reach $25,000,000. He won’t have a lack of suitors. Somebody’s going to pay him a ton of money even with that qualifying offer attached.
3. Chris Davis: Davis is in the same boat as Greinke. He’s the best power hitter on the market by a pretty significant margin. He’ll easily reach $20,000,000 per season for at least four or five years. If there was any hope that he would decline it, the fact that Scott Boras is Davis’ agent destroyed it.
4. Justin Upton: Unfortunately for him, Upton isn’t the elite player that everyone thought he would be. Despite that, he’s still an extremely good player and his bat is going to attract a lot of teams. He might not get $20,000,000 per season like the others above him, but even in a worst-case scenario, he would still get around $15,000,000 a season for the next five seasons.
5. Jordan Zimmermann: This is one that will intrigue enough teams due to Zimmermann’s age (he’s only 29) and track record. It would make no sense for him to accept the qualifying offer since he’s getting at least $15,000,000 a season for the next few seasons.
6. Alex Gordon: Gordon is going to get paid by somebody. He’s one of the better outfielders on the market and is arguably the second best leadoff hitter on the market next to Heyward. He’s 32-years-old, but someone’s still going to give him about $17,000,000 a year for at least the next three seasons.
7. Hisashi Iwakuma: Now this is a kind of interesting case. He won’t get a long-term deal because he’s 34 -years -old, but he’ll still likely get an extension in excess of $15,800,000 a season or at worst he gets something around that for the next two seasons. So it wouldn’t make any sense for him to accept it.
8. John Lackey: Lackey is 37-years-old, but he’s coming off a year with a 2.77 ERA. Somebody’s going to give him about $20,000,000 for a year or two. Or he could just retire. Regardless, he’s not accepting the qualifying offer.
9. Wei-Yin Chen: Here is a guy who the casual fan might not know. But he’s a really good pitcher. Is he in the Greinke/Zimmermann category? No. But he’s at worst a pretty darn solid middle of the rotation arm who’s only 26-years-old. He might not get $15,800,000 a season. He’ll get enough years that it will be worth it for him to decline the qualifying offer.
10. Howie Kendrick: Kendrick has quietly been one of the better second basemen in the MLB over the past decade. He’s 32-years-old, but I think teams believe that he can continue to be pretty good for at least the next two to three seasons. Is he getting a six-figure deal? Nope. But it’ll be good enough that he knows that he should decline his qualifying offer.
11. Yovani Gallardo: Gallardo is a guy whom you probably don’t want your team to burn a first round pick for. But someone’s going to do it. His stuff is too tempting. Just pray it’s not your team.
12. Daniel Murphy: Introducing the guy who your team signs and you’re going to hate them for doing it. His versatility and consistent bat are strong enough selling points that someone will pay him about $15,000,000 a year for the next four seasons. Is that deserved? Debatable. But it’s going to happen.

Let’s get to the more curious cases.

Next: Who has to at least consider accepting it