College Football: Picking 40 bowl games against the spread

Orange Bowl – CFB Playoff Semifinal – Clemson (+4) over Oklahoma

This is a coin-flip game in my estimation, and in a coin-flip game, I’m taking the points. Oklahoma is a team that is getting real buzz including some “best team in the country” conversations, and it is easy to see why with Baker Mayfield and a super-talented offense. Still, the Sooners are too inconsistent for my taste, and they haven’t squared off against a defense of the caliber of Clemson this season.

The Tigers can at least play to a draw at the quarterback position with Heisman finalist Deshaun Watson, and Brent Venables might be the best assistant coach in the country. From a handicapping perspective, I think this game should be a “pick’em” on a neutral field, and I sincerely feel as if you are getting more than a field goal of value. That makes Clemson the automatic choice.

Cotton Bowl – CFB Playoff Semifinal – Alabama (-9.5) over Michigan State

I will never pick against Alabama in a game where the opponent employs a pro-style offense.

It goes against virtually everything in my nature to take the favorite with this kind of number in a big spot and, frankly, I really believe that Michigan State is a good football team. However, the Crimson Tide are on another level defensively to the point where I don’t believe that the Spartans will be able to run the ball with any type of success and that puts MSU behind the sticks on a regular basis.

That won’t work.

If you are looking for another reason to take the favorite, more than 70% of the action has been on the Spartans in the early going and the number is actually getting bigger instead of smaller. That is a pure indication of sharp action on Nick Saban’s team, and I am going to join them. It is usually the right side.