College Football: Picking 40 bowl games against the spread

Bahamas Bowl – Middle Tennessee (+4.5) over Western Michigan

This is a pure fade of the public, and I would be lying if I said otherwise. More than 70% of the action (via Sports Insights) is on the Broncos as the favorite, yet the line is actually falling from the opener of 3.5 points. That is a pure indication that the smart money is on the underdog, and if you have followed this space for some time, taking the points is always the default play.

Hawai’i Bowl – San Diego State (+1) over Cincinnati

I just think San Diego State is better. This line should be reversed and it would be if Cincinnati was not the bigger name program. The Aztecs have flown under the radar by nature of their conference affiliation and the time zone in which they play, but San Diego State getting points here is an automatic trigger pull. Do the right thing.

St. Petersburg Bowl – Connecticut (+4.5) over Marshall

I hate this game. I think Marshall is the better team, and if the line was three points, I would give out the favorite. At four, though, there is enough of a cushion to justify UConn as the published play. My advice? Stay away completely.

Sun Bowl – Miami (+3) over Washington State

Everybody is on Washington State. More than 75% of the action (via Sports Insights) is on Wazzu as the small favorite, and this Miami team has been frustrating for everyone who has jumped in with a rooting interest during the 2015 season. The ‘Canes do have considerable talent, though, and in a spot where I can fade the public in a big way, I’m taking Miami.

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