College Football: Picking 40 bowl games against the spread
By Brad Rowland
Arizona Bowl – Colorado State (-3) over Nevada
Nevada might be the worst team that is participating in a bowl, and I can’t figure out why this line is so low. Normally, that would send me in the direction of the Wolfpack as a “fade the public” pick, but I just think Colorado State is significantly better, and I trust Mike Bobo’s staff to take care of business with the better roster.
Texas Bowl – Texas Tech (+7) over LSU
Leonard Fournette might run for 300 yards in this game, and as a result, it would be easy to take LSU. However, the Tigers are not nearly as good any many believed early in the season, and this kind of number shows a bit too much in the way of respect for Les Miles’ team. I’m not sure that LSU can stop the high-flying Texas Tech offense, and while I would pick the Tigers outright, I can’t lay this many points.
Birmingham Bowl – Memphis (+2.5) over Auburn
Memphis being an underdog in this game is absurd. Yes, the game is in Birmingham and Auburn should have a home field advantage to some degree, but Gus Malzahn’s team has been brutal for most of the season while Memphis is legitimately good.
Paxton Lynch will be the best offensive player on the field, Memphis has every motivation in the world to show up and play on this stage against a real opponent and, in the end, Auburn isn’t very good. This is an easy pick, even when the public will likely be screaming War Eagle.
Belk Bowl – NC State (+5.5) 0ver Mississippi State
I was all ready to take Dak Prescott in his final game, but the number is just too big. NC State has their own star quarterback in Jacoby Brissett, and the stadium should be more than half full of Wolfpack fans given the reasonably short trek to Charlotte.
On the field, NC State is a typical team that is better than you think, and many casual handicappers will see an SEC team on the field and back the Bulldogs blindly. If you can get 4 points or less on Mississippi State, that is probably the right side, but the spread is too wide for me to lay the points right now.
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