Super Bowl 50 Odds: Best bets against the spread

Denver Broncos wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders (10) dives for but cannot catch a pass in the end zone against the New England Patriots in the second quarter in the AFC Championship football game at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports /

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Denver Broncos outside linebacker Von Miller (58) celebrates during the fourth quarter in the AFC Championship football game at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports /

Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers UNDER 45.5 points

The Super Bowl is the public game, and the public loves to go over the total.

That is a simplification of what is happening here, but all indications are that more than 70 percent of the action has come in on the over to this point in the week. With that as the backdrop, the sharp side is, as usual, the under and that is doubly true given these two defenses.

More than anything, I can’t fathom the Broncos putting up 20 points or more in this spot given the limitations of Peyton Manning, and if they do, it will almost certainly include some special teams or defensive help. On the flip side, Carolina’s offense is a) playing away from home where they haven’t been nearly as effective this season and b) facing what is probably the best defense in the NFL. Cam Newton is the league MVP by any description, but that doesn’t mean he’ll have a breezy time against this Denver defense, especially given the lack of talent he has to work with on the perimeter.

This line is in a very reasonable place, meaning that the under isn’t as strong as it might be normally with the public on the other side, but I’m rolling with the sharp guys and fading the points.

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