20 bold predictions for the NBA’s second half

Stephen Curry will take less than 60% of the No. 1 MVP vote

Curry will win the MVP again. I have no illusions here. He’ll deserve it, too; the Golden State Warriors offense gains it’s advantage because teams have not figured out how to guard Curry after sixteen months of MVP-level play. His handles and release make his jump shot un-guardable, and his accuracy makes it deadly.

But one thing will work against Curry with voters when the MVP race comes to it’s conclusion, and that is the legitimate MVP case for Draymond Green. The Warriors are just as doomed without Green as they are without Curry. As explained earlier, Green gives the Warriors their lineup flexibility, making it easier for the team to run their small-ball lineups that run up the score on opposing teams.

The way the NBA MVP voting system works is similar to the Academy Award for Best Picture. Voters select their top five candidates, and each ranking is weighted. Therefore, a winner can be selected even if they don’t receive the most first place votes. This is why Birdman beat Boyhood last year; despite having less first place votes, more voters ranked the film second or third than they did Boyhood, and so Birdman received a higher point total.

By the end of the season, Green’s value will become apparent, and so some voters may be instead looking to a more singularly influential talent for his team to give the award to, say, Kawhi Leonard. However, the system that ruined Boyhood will undoubtedly work in Curry’s favor. Few voters, and no one in any sound mind, would consider Curry any lower than second in the voting race.

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