20 bold predictions for the NBA’s second half

James Harden will outpace over half of the league in isolation plays

Thanks to NBA.com, we know that as a team the Golden State Warriors have run 363 isolation plays in 2015-16. As an individual, James Harden has run 413 isolation plays in 2015-16.

The Golden State Warriors are only one of the 14 NBA teams that have run less iso plays than Harden has over the season. We can use the Warriors because their philosophy is antithetical to isolation plays, but it could also be used for the San Antonio Spurs or Boston Celtics, the Atlanta Hawks or Dallas Mavericks. All of these teams have chosen to run an iso play less than Harden has on his own.

A quick look at the stats show that Harden chooses to turn to isolation on 26.9% of his offensive possessions. The league-leading Los Angeles Lakers – boy, that’s a great sign – have run isolation plays on 10.4% of their possessions as a team. The Warriors run it 6.2%. No other team runs isos more than 10%.

As for efficiency, the great bastion of Daryl Morey-ball, Harden does barely outpace the Warriors, finishing with 0.94 points per possession opposed to 0.92. Of course, Harden is doing worse with turnovers (11.4% to 9.9%), and shot efficiency (37.9% to 43.7%), but is making up for it in drawing fouls (15.5% to 11.3%).

Right now, the median is 421.5 isolation plays total. Harden is ten away from the teams tied for fourteenth in the NBA, the Phoenix Suns and Minnesota Timberwolves at 423.

With the Rockets moving further and further in the direction of their “bread-and-butter” while they push for the playoffs, expect the Harden isolations to increase in frequency.

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