20 bold predictions for the NBA's second half

20 bold predictions for the NBA’s second half

Feb 14, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Magic Johnson (left) speaks during a tribute to Western Conference forward Kobe Bryant of the Los Angeles Lakers (right) prior to the start of the NBA All Star Game at Air Canada Centre. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports /

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January 25, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) dribbles the basketball against San Antonio Spurs forward LaMarcus Aldridge (12) during the first quarter at Oracle Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports /

NEITHER the Golden State Warriors nor the San Antonio Spurs will crack 70 wins

As of the end of the All Star Break, the Golden State Warriors sit at the top of the NBA with a record of 48-4. Not far behind them are the San Antonio Spurs, playing with a 45-8 record.

It boggles the mind that we live in a world where this is a brave prediction. The Warriors are on pace for 75 wins – and that’s rounding down. If they go 22-8 or better (a .733 win percentage), then they will have cracked 70 wins; they need to go at least 25-5 (.833) to surpass the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls, who finished at 72-10.

Conversely, the Spurs are not quite on pace for 70 evenly, and will need to go 25-4 (.862) to break 70 and 28-1 (.966, yeesh) to beat the Bulls.

So why, exactly, would the Spurs or the Warriors slow from their torrid paces?

As for the Warriors, it seems foolish to parade around the “law of averages” idea. The team isn’t outplaying their own talent. They aren’t doomed for a comedown. This is their average, as scary as that may seem, and a dip in effectiveness will be a case of breaking from the norm rather than the universe balancing and correcting itself.

With that said, the team does go on a difficult six-game road stretch (POR-LAC-ATL-MIA-ORL-OKC) that could see them possibly double their loss total. All four Warriors losses are on the road, and this road trip will dictate their outlook record-wise for the remainder of the season.

Looking at the Spurs, how head coach Gregg Popovich and the team approach the rest of the season will be predicated on (a) where they are in relation to the Warriors in the Western Conference standings and (b) where they can give their key pieces much needed rest before the playoffs begin.

If the top seed is in reach, I imagine the Spurs will push for it simply because they want to avoid the No. 3 seed Oklahoma City Thunder, who they would potentially (or in truth, inevitably) play in the second round. If at any point the top seed becomes unrealistic, then the expectation is for Pop to rightly sacrifice wins in favor of rest and energy in the postseason.

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