20 bold predictions for the NBA’s second half

Karl-Anthony Towns will be the unanimous NBA Rookie of the Year

A unanimous Rookie of the Year has happened four times in NBA history: Ralph Sampson (HOU, 1983-84), David Robinson (SA, 1989-90), Blake Griffin (LAC, 2010-11) and Damian Lillard (POR, 2012-13).

Karl-Anthony Towns has had one of the most efficient and productive rookie seasons in history. The standard for rookie seasons, particularly for the frontcourt, is Tim Duncan’s in 1997-98 …

Notable season averages (82 g, 39.1 min/g)
21.1 pts/g – 11.9 rbs/g – 2.5 blk/g – 54.9% FG

Now compare this to Towns so far this season …

Notable season averages (54 g, 30.1 min/g)
17.1 pts/g – 10.1 rbs/g – 1.8 blk/g – 54.4% FG

Two of three of these “per game” stats come out in Towns’ favor when adjusted to per 36 min; he outdoes Duncan in points (20.4 to 19.4), total rebounds (12.1 to 11.0) and he remains close in blocks (2.2 to 2.3). Throw on top of this Towns’ advantage from the foul line and three – Towns is shooting 85.2% of his foul shots compared to Duncan’s 66.2, and he’s 37.5% from beyond the arc while Duncan missed all ten of his three point attempts – and the Timberwolves rookie finds the advantage in True Shooting Percentage, 59.6% to 57.7%.

No other rookie seasons are close. Based on rookie statistical output, Towns is the better prospect than Blake Griffin, Anthony Davis and even LeBron James*. Being better than either LeBron or Duncan is lofty – probably too lofty – but the seeds have been planted, and Towns’ potential only appears to be heading upward.

Even with the quality season Jahlil Okafor is having with the Philadelphia 76ers, or Kristaps Porzingis is having with the New York Knicks, there is no question who the best and most productive rookie for 2015-16 has been.

*LeBron’s rookie season needs to be seen with the context of his role with the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2003-04, where he was asked to do EVERYTHING.

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