20 bold predictions for the NBA’s second half

The Cleveland Cavaliers will miss the NBA Finals

This entire season appears to be a prelude to a grudge match. If someone says they don’t think the NBA Finals will be a Warriors-Cavs redux, the only sane reaction appears to be to say, “Oh, so why do you think the Spurs will beat the Warriors?”

But how solid are the Cavs after the All Star Break? Unlike their counterparts in the West, faith in Cleveland isn’t grounded in the team so much as it’s based on a lack of faith in anyone else in the East.

The cornerstone story for the Cavaliers was the firing of head coach David Blatt, replacing him with the more player-friendly assistant coach Tyronn Lue. Blatt was brought in prior to LeBron’s return, and was designed to be a teacher to younger players – much like Brad Stevens or Quin Snyder – rather than a ringleader and minutes manager in the mold of the Doc Rivers.

Blatt’s job was to make the Cavaliers champions in, say, 2019 rather than 2015. LeBron needed to build his contender NOW, and Blatt needed to play the long game. Therefore, despite being 97-46 over a season and a half with the Cavs, Cleveland is now guided by Tyronn Lue, who will run the offense through LeBron.

Employing Lue certainly gives them a singularity of purpose: have the two primary ball handlers (LeBron & Kyrie Irving) run isolation plays and pick-and-rolls, and surround them with shooters and rebounders to make it easier. But this won’t be sustainable. Irving has already missed half of the team’s games this season, and he’s still not a consistent presence in the lineup.

Throw in the fact that the Cavs don’t have enough reliable shooters to draw pressure away from LeBron, and the Cavs could easily fall to a team like the Toronto Raptors in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Next: Who gets Walton?