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NBA Contenders and Pretenders

By Luke Dahlgren

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March 4, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Paul Millsap (4) passes the ball to guard Jeff Teague (0) against Los Angeles Lakers guard Marcelo Huertas (9) during the first half at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
March 4, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Paul Millsap (4) passes the ball to guard Jeff Teague (0) against Los Angeles Lakers guard Marcelo Huertas (9) during the first half at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports /

PRETENDER: Atlanta Hawks

Surprisingly, the strength of the Atlanta Hawks this year is their defense. Since losing to the Golden State Warriors on February 22nd, the Hawks have gone 7-2, and have allowed an average of 82.29 points in those victories. The two defeats were an overtime loss to the Warriors, and a loss to the surging Toronto Raptors.

The Hawks are second in the NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing only 98.6 points per every 100 possessions; the Spurs are in first at a ridiculous 95.5 pts/100 poss, and no other team is under 100.

So, why are the Hawks only a pretender in the Eastern Conference? Two reasons:

  1. The Hawks are among the worst rebounding teams in the NBA, pulling down only 47.5% of available rebounds. The only team in the NBA that is worse at this is the 9-57 Philadelphia 76ers.
  2. The Hawks yet again do not have a legitimate primary option on offense. As detrimental as an over-reliance on isolation plays can be, it is extremely helpful to have a player who can score consistently in iso situations.

This was seen last season in the Eastern Conference Finals, when the Hawks were swept by the Cleveland Cavaliers. Atlanta wasn’t able to control possessions like the Cavs were, and when the machine-like efficiency of their offense wasn’t up to its usual standards, the Cavs were able to grind out four consecutive victories.

Al Horford looks to be moving on in the offseason, and so this could be the end of the Hawks very brief window of opportunity. The ideal scenario for this team involves a matchup with the Boston Celtics in the first round, where they can force the Celtics’ young players into taking low-efficiency shots. But this is a team that will be out-rebounded by the Cavs and the Raptors. A second round exit is optimistic.

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