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2016 MLB season: NL Central preview

By Nathaniel Reeves

Mar 29, 2016; Mesa, AZ, USA; Chicago Cubs pitcher Jake Arrieta against the Oakland Athletics during a spring training game at Sloan Park. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 29, 2016; Mesa, AZ, USA; Chicago Cubs pitcher Jake Arrieta against the Oakland Athletics during a spring training game at Sloan Park. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports /
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Aug 9, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen (22) rounds the bases on a two run home run against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the fifth inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 9, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen (22) rounds the bases on a two run home run against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the fifth inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports /

3. Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates have posted no worse than 88 wins in any of the last three seasons, and should be able to at least come close to that mark once again in 2016. While Pittsburgh looks a little bit worse than St. Louis or Chicago on paper, it still has more than enough talent to reach the postseason.

Projected lineup: 

1. Gregory Polanco, RF

2. Josh Harrison, 2B

3. Andrew McCutchen, CF

4. Starling Marte, LF

5. John Jaso, 1B

6. David Freese, 3B

7. Francisco Cervelli, C

8. Jordy Mercer, SS

McCutchen and Marte are stars in the middle of the order, and the Pirates have quite a few solid role players around them. Pittsburgh’s biggest keys in 2016 will be the two players ahead of them in the lineup.

Polanco was solid in 2015 and seems poised for an ever bigger breakout this year. The former top prospect may have fallen short of expectations with 2.3 WAR last year per FanGraphs, but Polanco made noticeable strides at the plate as a 24-year-old, and will be a very valuable piece if he can rediscover some of the power he showed in the minor leagues.

The Pirates also need Harrison to recapture some of the form he showed from 5.0 WAR season in 2014 per FanGraphs. While Harrison might not have the ability to put up a 137 wRC+ again, he has the potential to be much better at the plate then his league-average numbers from last season.

One more important factor will be the health of Jung-ho Kang, who was excellent as a rookie before going down with a broken leg in September. Kang should return in late April, and could be an upgrade over either Freese or Mercer on the left side of the infield.

Projected rotation: 

1. Gerrit Cole

2. Francisco Liriano

3. Jon Niese

4. Jeff Locke

5. Juan Nicasio

The starting rotation is where Pittsburgh could run into some trouble. Cole and Liriano are a great 1-2 punch, but things get a little dicey after that.

Both Niese and Locke are coming off of so-so seasons, and don’t have the upside that the mid-rotation starters of St. Louis or Chicago have. While Nicasio has shown plenty of ability as a reliever and is pitching well this spring, he hasn’t been great as a starting pitcher throughout his career.

Elite pitching prospect Tyler Glasnow is going to be up very soon, and his performance is going to be critical for the Pirates in 2016. Expect to see fellow prospect Jameson Tallion at some point as well. Pittsburgh will also be helped out by the fact that it has the best and deepest bullpen in the division.

Those questions at the back of the rotation will ultimately put the Pirates behind the Cardinals and Cubs this year. Still, Pittsburgh has a great chance to challenge for a Wild Card spot yet again.

Projected record:  86-76

Next: 2. St. Louis Cardinals

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