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2016 MLB season: NL Central preview

By Nathaniel Reeves

Mar 29, 2016; Mesa, AZ, USA; Chicago Cubs pitcher Jake Arrieta against the Oakland Athletics during a spring training game at Sloan Park. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 29, 2016; Mesa, AZ, USA; Chicago Cubs pitcher Jake Arrieta against the Oakland Athletics during a spring training game at Sloan Park. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports /
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Jul 25, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Carlos Martinez (18) throws during the first inning of a baseball game against the Atlanta Braves at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Kane-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 25, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Carlos Martinez (18) throws during the first inning of a baseball game against the Atlanta Braves at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Kane-USA TODAY Sports /

2. St. Louis Cardinals 

No matter who comes and goes, the Cardinals consistently remain in the playoff hunt due to their strong development and ability to get the most out of any player. There are some apparent holes on the roster, but don’t expect St. Louis to fall too far.

Projected lineup:

1. Matt Carpenter, 3B

2. Stephen Piscotty, RF

3. Matt Holliday, LF

4. Matt Adams, 1B

5. Randal Grichuk, CF

6. Yadier Molina, C

7. Kolten Wong, 2B

8. Ruben Tejada, SS

Even with the 100-win season, the Cardinals ranked in the bottom five of the NL in runs scored in 2015. While this lineup may be even worse without Heyward, it has a good enough combination of upside and proven veterans to compliment St. Louis’ outstanding pitching staff.

The young outfield duo of Piscotty and Grichuk will be very important for St. Louis this season. Both put up excellent numbers at the plate as rookies last season, and could approach the 4-5 WAR range this year if they continue that pace as everyday players.

The health of Holliday and Molina will also be a major factor, as both missed significant time a year ago. Holliday is still well above average offensively, while the skill set Molina brings behind the plate is tough to replace.

St. Louis will also hope for more out of Adams, as he slid to a 78 wRC+ last year per FanGraphs after starting his career with two strong seasons. As always, the Cardinals have a lot of depth, and bench players like Tommy Pham and Brandon Moss should make important contributions.

Projected rotation: 

1. Adam Wainwright

2. Michael Wacha

3. Carlos Martinez

4. Mike Leake

5. Jaime Garcia

The strength of the Cardinals last season was the starting rotation, and they again should be one of the top units in the league this year. However, there is an element of boom-or-bust with the top three in St. Louis’ rotation.

Wainwright is still a legitimate ace at 34 years old, but missed nearly the entire 2015 season due to a torn Achilles and has to show he’s recovered. Wacha had a serious shoulder concern in 2014, although he didn’t show that last year with a 3.38 ERA (3.87 FIP) over 30 starts per FanGraphs.

St. Louis’ rotation is going to be very good at the worst, and it could be dominant with a strong campaign from Martinez. Martinez posted a 3.01 ERA (3.21 FIP) with 9.22 strikeouts per nine innings in 29 starts last year according to FanGraphs, and his stuff is so good that Martinez could be even better going forward, However, yet again, there are some concerns following a shoulder injury at the end of last season.

There’s some depth in the rotation as well, and St. Louis has the luxury of a strong bullpen behind it. Even if they appear a step behind the Cubs, the Cardinals have just a couple of weaknesses on the roster and should again be in the mix for the postseason.

Projected record:  90-72

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