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2016 MLB season: NL Central preview

By Nathaniel Reeves

Mar 29, 2016; Mesa, AZ, USA; Chicago Cubs pitcher Jake Arrieta against the Oakland Athletics during a spring training game at Sloan Park. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 29, 2016; Mesa, AZ, USA; Chicago Cubs pitcher Jake Arrieta against the Oakland Athletics during a spring training game at Sloan Park. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports /
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Oct 12, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant (17) hits a two run home run during the fifth inning against the St. Louis Cardinals in game three of the NLDS at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 12, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant (17) hits a two run home run during the fifth inning against the St. Louis Cardinals in game three of the NLDS at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports /

1. Chicago Cubs

By adding Heyward, Ben Zobrist and Lackey to an already excellent roster, the Cubs became the favorites in both the division and the entire National League. The preseason favorite doesn’t always win – ask the Washington Nationals –  but the Cubs have very few holes on the roster.

Projected lineup: 

1. Dexter Fowler, CF

2. Jason Heyward, RF

3. Anthony Rizzo, 1B

4. Kris Bryant, 3B

5. Kyle Schwarber, LF

6. Ben Zobrist, 2B

7. Miguel Montero, C

8. Addison Russell, SS

Arguably the biggest weakness for the Cubs a year ago was corner outfield defense. That prompted Epstein to sign defensive corner outfielder in the Majors, and adding Heyward’s 6.0 FanGraphs WAR to an already-stacked lineup makes Chicago scary.

If there’s any real question mark in the lineup, it’s Russell. Russell more than held his own with a 90 wRC+ and 2.9 WAR per FanGraphs as a 21-year-old starting shortstop for a contender a year ago, but there’s certainly room for growth at the plate. Kyle Schwarber’s development, particularly defensively, will also be a key for the Cubs in 2016.

Zobrist is a nice piece for any team to have, particularly one managed by Joe Maddon. The Cubs also have some depth, as Jorge Soler and Javier Baez will both get plenty of playing time.

Projected rotation: 

1. Jake Arrieta

2. Jon Lester

3. John Lackey

4. Kyle Hendricks

5. Jason Hammel

The New York Mets and Cleveland Indians are vying for the title of best starting rotation in the Majors, but the Cubs are not that far behind.

Arrieta, the defending Cy Young champion, and Lester form one of the best 1-2 punches in the league. Lackey is coming off of a strong 3.6 WAR per FanGraphs and slides in perfectly as the No. 3, giving the Cubs perhaps all they need should they reach a short postseason series.

Hendricks got lost in the shuffle last year, but posted a solid 3.95 ERA (3.36 FIP) over 32 starts according to FanGraphs. Adam Warren was also a nice acquisition in the Starlin Castro trade, as he can easily transition from the bullpen to rotation at any time.

The Cubs aren’t unbeatable by any means. Chicago’s bullpen is behind that of Pittsburgh or St. Louis, and it’s fair to expect some regression from Lester and Arrieta. Still, anything short of a division title with this roster would be a disappointment.

Projected record: 96-66

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